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Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation

177K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation leaves Black at 47.7% — pick a better weapon.

The minimum advantage of -5.1% means this line underperforms at the selected level.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score47.7%Based on 177K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
40%47.7%55%
Range (90% confident): 47.5% – 47.9%
Min adv-5.1%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=177K
Outcome Distribution
4...dxe5
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation
Analyzen=177K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 47.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.5% and 47.9%), based on 177K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 44% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.5% win rate (3,075 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.9% win rate (6,565 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.9% win rate (11,394 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.5% win rate (17,726 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.9% win rate (23,419 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.3% win rate (31,845 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.7% win rate (35,222 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.6% win rate (34,665 games)
  • 2500+: 39.8% win rate (13,388 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (46%), worst in Classical (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.7% win rate (126 games)
  • Bullet: 44.5% win rate (76,415 games)
  • Blitz: 45.5% win rate (87,311 games)
  • Rapid: 45.0% win rate (12,782 games)
  • Classical: 39.1% win rate (665 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (1,196 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (1,546 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (328 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (2,625 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (3,167 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (758 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (4,887 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (5,222 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (1,233 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (7,093 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (8,682 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (1,767 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (148 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 34.8% expected score (38 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (10,000 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (10,876 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (2,345 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (160 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (13,556 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (15,575 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2,547 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (154 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (13,772 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (19,190 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (2,157 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (93 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (14,012 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (19,108 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (1,484 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (56 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (9,274 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (3,945 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.8% expected score (163 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation
47.1%
Alekhine Defense: Maróczy Variation
49.0%
Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation
49.9%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Geschev Gambit
47.6%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 177K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (3.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.3%) outperforms Rapid (48.3%) by 3.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.2%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.0%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 10.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-62.5%) win rate for white (126 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.6%) win rate for white (76K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.8%) win rate for white (87K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.0%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-56.4%) win rate for white (665 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.