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Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense

126K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense is balanced for Black at 48.5% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score48.5%Based on 126K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%48.5%55%
Range (90% confident): 48.3% – 48.8%
Min adv-3.4%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=126K
Outcome Distribution
3...e6
Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense
Analyzen=126K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.8%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 48.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.3% and 48.8%), based on 126K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 17.6% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 42% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.2% win rate (18,490 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.7% win rate (19,309 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.8% win rate (17,411 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.2% win rate (16,665 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.2% win rate (17,835 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.2% win rate (19,303 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.4% win rate (11,846 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.3% win rate (4,724 games)
  • 2500+: 44.9% win rate (728 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Classical (34%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.4% win rate (1,391 games)
  • Bullet: 50.9% win rate (36,724 games)
  • Blitz: 47.2% win rate (61,561 games)
  • Rapid: 41.7% win rate (25,364 games)
  • Classical: 34.0% win rate (1,271 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (2,634 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (10,293 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (5,510 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 26.6% expected score (39 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.2% expected score (44 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (2,628 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (9,799 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (6,636 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 37.0% expected score (202 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (151 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (3,767 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (8,120 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (4,971 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (402 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (284 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (4,816 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (7,604 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (3,559 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.2% expected score (402 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.0% expected score (455 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (6,439 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (8,348 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (2,433 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.8% expected score (160 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (312 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (6,351 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (11,191 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (1,399 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 31.6% expected score (50 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.3% expected score (100 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (5,828 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (5,174 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (731 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 37.3% expected score (30 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (3,600 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.9% expected score (967 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.5% expected score (124 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (661 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 35.7% expected score (65 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation
47.1%
Alekhine Defense: Maróczy Variation
49.0%
Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation
49.9%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Geschev Gambit
47.6%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 126K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 54.4% win rate for white (19K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (63.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (45.4%) by 17.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense?

The Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 54.3% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 54.4% (90% CI: 53.8%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.8%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 48.2%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 728 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 45.4% (90% CI: 43.2%-47.5%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.7%) win rate for white (37K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.2%) win rate for white (62K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 54.3% (90% CI: 53.8%-54.8%) win rate for white (25K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense has a 63.0% (90% CI: 60.7%-65.2%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Vavra Defense is statistically balanced with a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.