109K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a 44.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 44.5% and 45.0%), based on 109K Lichess games.
Stable across ratings (~47%)
Best in UltraBullet (59%), worst in Blitz (43%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a 43.3% (90% CI: 43.1%-43.6%) win rate for white, based on 109K rated games from Lichess.
The Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 48.2% win rate for white (6.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Classical (48.8%) outperforms Blitz (43.0%) by 5.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a 47.3% (90% CI: 44.5%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 882 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a 43.7% (90% CI: 42.1%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a 43.5% (90% CI: 42.5%-44.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a 42.1% (90% CI: 41.4%-42.8%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a 42.3% (90% CI: 41.8%-42.8%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a 42.1% (90% CI: 41.7%-42.6%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.0%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 46.9%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a 43.3% (90% CI: 42.8%-43.7%) win rate for white (33K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.
In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a 43.0% (90% CI: 42.7%-43.3%) win rate for white (63K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.6%) win rate for white (12K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.
In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit has a 48.8% (90% CI: 45.5%-52.0%) win rate for white (623 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.
The Alekhine Defense: O'Sullivan Gambit is slightly favors black with a 43.3% (90% CI: 43.1%-43.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.