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Analyzer

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line

188K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line is balanced for Black at 48.4% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score48.4%Based on 188K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%48.4%55%
Range (90% confident): 48.2% – 48.6%
Min adv-3.6%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=188K
Outcome Distribution
4...Bg4
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line
Analyzen=188K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.2%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a 48.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.2% and 48.6%), based on 188K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.3% win rate (691 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.4% win rate (2,003 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.8% win rate (5,158 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.4% win rate (12,901 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.5% win rate (23,289 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.4% win rate (41,377 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.9% win rate (52,052 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.3% win rate (42,134 games)
  • 2500+: 39.5% win rate (8,279 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (46%), worst in UltraBullet (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 33.3% win rate (12 games)
  • Bullet: 45.2% win rate (59,765 games)
  • Blitz: 46.4% win rate (111,830 games)
  • Rapid: 44.3% win rate (15,599 games)
  • Classical: 42.6% win rate (678 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (249 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (353 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (88 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (723 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (982 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.9% expected score (294 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (1,784 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (2,684 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (677 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (4,915 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (6,480 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (1,421 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (82 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (7,947 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (12,733 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (2,404 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (202 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (11,272 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (25,772 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (4,092 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (240 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (13,634 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (34,163 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (4,142 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.6% expected score (113 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (13,917 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (25,825 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (2,365 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 34.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (5,324 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (2,838 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (116 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation
47.1%
Alekhine Defense: Maróczy Variation
49.0%
Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation
49.9%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Geschev Gambit
47.6%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 188K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.7% win rate for white (8.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.3%) outperforms Classical (49.8%) by 1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a 50.8% (90% CI: 47.6%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 691 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a 52.4% (90% CI: 50.5%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 41K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.8%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.6%) win rate for white (60K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.0%) win rate for white (112K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.7%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line has a 49.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-53.0%) win rate for white (678 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.6%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line is statistically balanced with a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.