Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation
142K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.5%.
Measured over 142K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 142K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 142K
- Best context
- 53.8% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Worst context
- 42.1% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.3%
- Draws
- 4.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 50.0%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (306 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (487 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (157 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (654 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (911 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (329 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,395 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (1,391 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (442 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (3,119 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (3,050 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (682 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (37 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 8.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (5,671 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (6,858 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (1,309 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (62 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (11,257 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (16,346 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (1,854 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.9% expected score (125 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (14,791 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (22,540 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,836 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (95 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (18,456 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (17,846 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (1,210 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 26.8% expected score (33 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (6,419 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (2,319 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (80 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation scores 49.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.1% and 49.5% — from 142K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 142K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate?
The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation scores 49.3% (range, 90% confident: 49.1% – 49.5%) for Black, based on 142K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation perform best?
The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation performs best at 1600-1799, where it scores 52.5% for Black (14K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, Blitz (49.8%) outperforms Classical (50.6%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation?
The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation scores 48.4% (range, 90% confident: 45.8% – 51.1%) for Black, based on 952 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation scores 46.3% (range, 90% confident: 44.5% – 48.2%) for Black, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation scores 49.5% (range, 90% confident: 48.1% – 51.0%) for Black, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation scores 50.1% (range, 90% confident: 49.1% – 51.1%) for Black, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation scores 52.5% (range, 90% confident: 51.8% – 53.2%) for Black, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation scores 51.8% (range, 90% confident: 51.3% – 52.3%) for Black, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation scores 49.9% (range, 90% confident: 49.5% – 50.3%) for Black, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation scores 46.8% (range, 90% confident: 46.4% – 47.2%) for Black, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation scores 43.8% (range, 90% confident: 43.0% – 44.7%) for Black, based on 8.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation scores 48.6% (range, 90% confident: 48.3% – 49.0%) for Black (62K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation scores 49.8% (range, 90% confident: 49.5% – 50.1%) for Black (72K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation scores 49.9% (range, 90% confident: 48.9% – 50.8%) for Black (7.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation scores 50.6% (range, 90% confident: 46.4% – 54.7%) for Black (379 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.9%.
Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation a good opening?
The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation is about level with a 48.4% (range, 90% confident: 48.2% – 48.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.