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Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation

142K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation is balanced for Black at 49.3% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score49.3%Based on 142K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%49.3%55%
Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 49.5%
Min adv-1.9%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=142K
Outcome Distribution
4...g6
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation
Analyzen=142K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a 49.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.1% and 49.5%), based on 142K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.1% win rate (952 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.9% win rate (1,896 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.1% win rate (3,246 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.6% win rate (6,893 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.7% win rate (13,907 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.7% win rate (29,592 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.4% win rate (39,268 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.1% win rate (37,550 games)
  • 2500+: 40.4% win rate (8,827 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (47%), worst in UltraBullet (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 37.7% win rate (37 games)
  • Bullet: 46.8% win rate (62,068 games)
  • Blitz: 47.1% win rate (71,748 games)
  • Rapid: 46.7% win rate (7,899 games)
  • Classical: 45.6% win rate (379 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (306 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (487 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (157 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (654 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (911 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (329 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,395 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (1,391 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (442 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (3,119 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (3,050 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (682 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (37 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 8.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (5,671 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (6,858 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (1,309 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (62 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (11,257 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (16,346 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (1,854 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.9% expected score (125 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (14,791 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (22,540 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (1,836 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (95 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (18,456 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (17,846 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (1,210 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 26.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (6,419 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (2,319 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (80 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation
47.1%
Alekhine Defense: Maróczy Variation
49.0%
Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation
49.9%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Geschev Gambit
47.6%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 142K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (8.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.6%) outperforms Classical (44.5%) by 5.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 47.6%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 952 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 50.4%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 47.7%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.5%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.9%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 8.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.0%) win rate for white (62K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.8%) win rate for white (72K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.9%) win rate for white (7.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 40.4%-48.7%) win rate for white (379 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.9%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.