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Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation

50K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.3%Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 53.7%Based on 50K games
0%53.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.9% – 53.7%
Outcome Distribution
51.2%4.1%44.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nf3
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation
Analyzen=50K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a 53.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.9% and 53.7%), based on 50K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.5% · Classical best · Blitz worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 55% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.3% win rate (1,358 games)
  • 1000-1199: 54.4% win rate (2,432 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.9% win rate (3,858 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.0% win rate (5,860 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.3% win rate (8,157 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.0% win rate (10,154 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.5% win rate (9,859 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.2% win rate (6,657 games)
  • 2500+: 52.5% win rate (1,750 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (60%), worst in Blitz (50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.7% win rate (25 games)
  • Bullet: 51.6% win rate (19,122 games)
  • Blitz: 50.3% win rate (25,587 games)
  • Rapid: 53.8% win rate (5,106 games)
  • Classical: 59.8% win rate (245 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (313 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (805 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.9% expected score (239 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (630 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (1,284 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.0% expected score (514 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,166 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (2,055 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.2% expected score (610 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (1,865 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (3,087 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (857 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 69.2% expected score (48 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (3,040 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (4,001 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (1,043 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (69 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (4,062 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (5,145 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (870 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 64.2% expected score (69 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (3,610 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (5,576 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (646 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (3,176 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (3,153 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (319 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (1,260 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (481 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Balogh Variation
48.3%
Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation
50.9%
Alekhine Defense: Brooklyn Variation, Everglades Variation
53.3%
Alekhine Defense: Buckley Attack
49.7%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Continuations (10)
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alburt Variation
48.4%
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Gambit
46.5%
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Alekhine Variation
45.9%
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation
46.7%
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Keres Variation
56.5%
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen Variation
49.7%
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation
48.9%
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Main Line
49.0%
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Panov Variation
48.5%
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation
48.0%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 50K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 55.3% win rate for white (1.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (59.8%) outperforms Blitz (50.3%) by 9.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 53.1%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 52.7%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.4%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 50.5%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.2%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.8%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.6%-54.9%) win rate for white (5.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation has a 59.8% (90% CI: 54.7%-64.9%) win rate for white (245 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.