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Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation

231K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation is balanced for Black at 50.1% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score50.1%Based on 231K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%50.1%55%
Range (90% confident): 49.9% – 50.3%
Min adv-0.3%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=231K
Outcome Distribution
4...Nb6
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation
Analyzen=231K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 50.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.9% and 50.3%), based on 231K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.9% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.1% win rate (361 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.9% win rate (1,518 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.7% win rate (5,401 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.0% win rate (13,917 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.0% win rate (29,413 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.8% win rate (50,431 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.3% win rate (55,875 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.5% win rate (58,127 games)
  • 2500+: 41.8% win rate (16,007 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (1,150 games)
  • Bullet: 48.4% win rate (179,245 games)
  • Blitz: 47.3% win rate (47,580 games)
  • Rapid: 45.9% win rate (2,972 games)
  • Classical: 46.4% win rate (103 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (234 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (110 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (986 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (468 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (57 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (58 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (3,877 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (1,324 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (140 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (281 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (9,818 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (3,468 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (330 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (333 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (20,882 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (7,428 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (738 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.9% expected score (241 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (34,796 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (14,513 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (847 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.4% expected score (163 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (42,624 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (12,443 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (632 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 35.6% expected score (61 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (50,898 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (6,960 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (206 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (15,130 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (866 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation
47.1%
Alekhine Defense: Maróczy Variation
49.0%
Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation
49.9%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Geschev Gambit
47.6%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 231K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (16K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (55.3%) outperforms Classical (46.4%) by 8.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 44.7%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 361 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.0% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 46.5%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.3%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 5.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 50K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 56K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 58K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 52.9%-57.7%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.3%) win rate for white (179K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.9%) win rate for white (48K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.9%-49.9%) win rate for white (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 38.5%-54.4%) win rate for white (103 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.