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Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation

231K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.1%

45%55%
Floor49.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.3%.

Measured over 231K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 231K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
231K
Best context
52.9% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context
44.5% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
37 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.9% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 41.5%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (234 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (110 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (986 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (468 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (57 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (58 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (3,877 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (1,324 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (140 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (281 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (9,818 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (3,468 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (330 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (333 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (20,882 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (7,428 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (738 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.9% expected score (241 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (34,796 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (14,513 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (847 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (34 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.4% expected score (163 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (42,624 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (12,443 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (632 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 35.6% expected score (61 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (50,898 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (6,960 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (206 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (15,130 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (866 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation
47.1%
Alekhine Defense: Maróczy Variation
49.0%
Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation
49.9%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Geschev Gambit
47.6%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation scores 50.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.9% and 50.3% — from 231K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
231K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate?

Playing the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation, Black wins 48.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 231K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 51.6% (50K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.9% in Blitz (48K games) against 48.8% in Rapid (3.0K games).

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.1%, draws 1.0% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 361 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.9%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.7%, draws 1.9% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 50K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 56K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 58K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 42.9%, draws 1.9% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 179K Lichess games.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 47.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 48K Lichess games.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 46.4%, draws 7.2% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 103 Lichess games.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Schmid Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.1% of its games and loses 48.0%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.