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Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation

131K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.1%

45%55%
Floor48.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.3%.

Measured over 131K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 131K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
131K
Best context
51.5% at 1600-1799 Blitz
Worst context
42.4% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.5% at 0-999, 40.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (1,067 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (2,048 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (550 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (2,111 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (4,229 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (1,264 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (3,615 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (6,711 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (1,800 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (55 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (5,724 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (10,124 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (2,602 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (8,384 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (13,812 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (3,434 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (139 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (9,975 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (14,726 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (2,906 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (142 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (7,477 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (11,430 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (1,565 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.6% expected score (47 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (6,992 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (5,096 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (537 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (1,892 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (427 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation
47.1%
Alekhine Defense: Maróczy Variation
49.0%
Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation
49.9%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Geschev Gambit
47.6%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation scores 49.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.8% and 49.3% — from 131K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
131K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation scores 49.1% (range, 90% confident: 48.8% – 49.3%) for Black, based on 131K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation performs best at 1600-1799, where it scores 50.5% for Black (26K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, Blitz (49.8%) outperforms Classical (47.9%). Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation scores 47.4% (range, 90% confident: 46.0% – 48.7%) for Black, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation scores 47.4% (range, 90% confident: 46.4% – 48.3%) for Black, based on 7.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation scores 48.6% (range, 90% confident: 47.9% – 49.4%) for Black, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation scores 50.1% (range, 90% confident: 49.5% – 50.7%) for Black, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation scores 50.5% (range, 90% confident: 50.0% – 51.0%) for Black, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation scores 50.2% (range, 90% confident: 49.7% – 50.7%) for Black, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation scores 48.4% (range, 90% confident: 47.8% – 49.0%) for Black, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation scores 45.8% (range, 90% confident: 45.1% – 46.6%) for Black, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation scores 45.6% (range, 90% confident: 43.9% – 47.3%) for Black, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation scores 48.7% (range, 90% confident: 48.3% – 49.0%) for Black (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation scores 49.8% (range, 90% confident: 49.5% – 50.1%) for Black (69K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation scores 47.0% (range, 90% confident: 46.3% – 47.7%) for Black (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation scores 47.9% (range, 90% confident: 44.3% – 51.6%) for Black (504 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation is about level with a 48.9% (range, 90% confident: 48.7% – 49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.