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Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation

131K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation is balanced for Black at 49.1% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score49.1%Based on 131K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%49.1%55%
Range (90% confident): 48.8% – 49.3%
Min adv-2.4%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=131K
Outcome Distribution
4...Nc6
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation
Analyzen=131K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a 49.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.8% and 49.3%), based on 131K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.7% win rate (3,666 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.7% win rate (7,624 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.1% win rate (12,184 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.5% win rate (18,557 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.7% win rate (25,771 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.0% win rate (27,749 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.9% win rate (20,521 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.2% win rate (12,630 games)
  • 2500+: 42.1% win rate (2,330 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (48%), worst in Classical (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.7% win rate (21 games)
  • Bullet: 47.1% win rate (47,237 games)
  • Blitz: 47.5% win rate (68,603 games)
  • Rapid: 44.6% win rate (14,667 games)
  • Classical: 44.4% win rate (504 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (1,067 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (2,048 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (550 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (2,111 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (4,229 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (1,264 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (3,615 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (6,711 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (1,800 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (55 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (5,724 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (10,124 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (2,602 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (99 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (8,384 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (13,812 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (3,434 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (139 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (9,975 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (14,726 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (2,906 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (142 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (7,477 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (11,430 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (1,565 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.6% expected score (47 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (6,992 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (5,096 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (537 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (1,892 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.9% expected score (427 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation
47.1%
Alekhine Defense: Maróczy Variation
49.0%
Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation
49.9%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Geschev Gambit
47.6%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 131K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.6% win rate for white (13K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.7%) outperforms Classical (48.6%) by 2.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.1%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.3%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.2%) win rate for white (47K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.3%) win rate for white (69K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.4%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 44.9%-52.2%) win rate for white (504 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Larsen-Haakert Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.