2.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line has a 57.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.5% and 59.1%), based on 2.0K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 61% → 38%
Best in Classical (84%), worst in UltraBullet (41%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line has a 55.4% (90% CI: 53.6%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K rated games from Lichess.
The Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 70.6% win rate for white (172 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (61.4%) outperforms Blitz (53.0%) by 8.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line has a 60.5% (90% CI: 56.1%-64.7%) win rate for white, based on 345 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line has a 58.9% (90% CI: 54.2%-63.5%) win rate for white, based on 300 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line has a 59.8% (90% CI: 54.4%-65.2%) win rate for white, based on 220 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line has a 70.6% (90% CI: 64.8%-76.1%) win rate for white, based on 172 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line has a 62.3% (90% CI: 54.4%-70.0%) win rate for white, based on 102 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line has a 53.8% (90% CI: 47.6%-59.8%) win rate for white, based on 178 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line has a 41.7% (90% CI: 37.1%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 307 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line has a 48.1% (90% CI: 43.5%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 324 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line has a 54.9% (90% CI: 51.4%-58.4%) win rate for white (555 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.
In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line has a 53.0% (90% CI: 50.5%-55.5%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.
In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line has a 61.4% (90% CI: 57.0%-65.7%) win rate for white (338 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.
The Alekhine Defense: Mokele Mbembe, Modern Line is statistically favors white with a 55.4% (90% CI: 53.6%-57.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.