696 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation, Karpov Variation has a 50.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.4% and 53.6%), based on 696 Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 20% → 49%
Best in Classical (60%), worst in Rapid (37%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation, Karpov Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 44.4%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 696 rated games from Lichess.
The Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation, Karpov Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 49.9% win rate for white (262 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (51.9%) outperforms Blitz (45.9%) by 6.0%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation, Karpov Variation has a sharpness score of 94.1 (decisive), meaning 94.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation, Karpov Variation has a 42.2% (90% CI: 35.5%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 142 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation, Karpov Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 43.5%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 194 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation, Karpov Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 44.8%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 262 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation, Karpov Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 46.7%-57.2%) win rate for white (244 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation, Karpov Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 41.8%-50.0%) win rate for white (405 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.
The Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation, Karpov Variation is slightly favors black with a 47.5% (90% CI: 44.4%-50.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.