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Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation

161K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation gives Black a 52.7% expected score — a strong choice.

Worst case (90% confidence) you keep a 4.9% advantage over the 50% baseline.

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Rating
Time
Black Expected Score52.7%Based on 161K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%52.7%60%
Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 52.9%
Min adv+4.9%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=161K
Outcome Distribution
5...g6
Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation
Analyzen=161K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a 52.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.5% and 52.9%), based on 161K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.1% win rate (86 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.2% win rate (344 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.0% win rate (1,650 games)
  • 1400-1599: 54.1% win rate (6,788 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.1% win rate (20,865 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.1% win rate (46,654 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.7% win rate (44,512 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.1% win rate (31,004 games)
  • 2500+: 42.3% win rate (8,718 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 46.3% win rate (19 games)
  • Bullet: 51.2% win rate (76,303 games)
  • Blitz: 50.5% win rate (75,916 games)
  • Rapid: 49.1% win rate (8,074 games)
  • Classical: 40.1% win rate (309 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (58 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (229 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.4% expected score (97 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (1,098 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (481 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (66 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (3,896 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (2,685 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (197 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (8,344 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (11,365 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (1,100 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.4% expected score (50 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (17,072 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (26,291 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (3,136 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (152 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (20,020 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (22,015 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (2,402 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (75 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (18,488 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (11,392 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (1,104 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 33.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (7,098 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (1,570 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (44 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation
47.1%
Alekhine Defense: Maróczy Variation
49.0%
Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation
49.9%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Geschev Gambit
47.6%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.2%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 161K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.8% win rate for white (8.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (45.8%) outperforms Rapid (45.5%) by 0.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 344 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 0.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 44.1%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 0.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.0%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 43.6%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a 43.5% (90% CI: 43.1%-43.8%) win rate for white, based on 47K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 31K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 8.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.1%) win rate for white (76K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.3%) win rate for white (76K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.4%) win rate for white (8.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 45.4%-54.7%) win rate for white (309 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.8%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.2%-45.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.