Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation
161K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.9%.
Measured over 161K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 161K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 161K
- Best context
- 56.8% at 1400-1599 Bullet
- Worst context
- 43.3% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.2%
- Draws
- 3.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.8% at 0-999, 42.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (58 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (20 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (229 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 39.4% expected score (97 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (1,098 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (481 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (66 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (3,896 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (2,685 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (197 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (8,344 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (11,365 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (1,100 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.4% expected score (50 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (17,072 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (26,291 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (3,136 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (152 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (20,020 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (22,015 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (2,402 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (75 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (18,488 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (11,392 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (1,104 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 33.7% expected score (20 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (7,098 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.3% expected score (1,570 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (44 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation scores 52.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.5% and 52.9% — from 161K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 161K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate?
Playing the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation, Black wins 50.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 161K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation perform best?
The Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 54.8% (47K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.7% in Blitz (76K games) against 51.8% in Rapid (8.1K games).
How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation?
The Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.2%, draws 0.4% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 344 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 53.0%, draws 0.9% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 54.1%, draws 1.9% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 53.1%, draws 2.7% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 53.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 47K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.1%, draws 4.9% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.3%, draws 5.9% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 8.7K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 51.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 76K Lichess games.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 50.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 76K Lichess games.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 49.1%, draws 5.3% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 8.1K Lichess games.
What is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 40.1%, draws 9.8% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 309 Lichess games.
Is the Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation a good opening?
The Alekhine Defense: Four Pawns Attack, Fianchetto Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.7% of its games and loses 45.4%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.