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Analyzer

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation

16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation is balanced for Black at 49.8% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score49.8%Based on 16K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%49.8%55%
Range (90% confident): 49.2% – 50.5%
Min adv-1.7%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=16K
Outcome Distribution
5...c6
Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation
Analyzen=16K
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate7.1%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation has a 49.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.2% and 50.5%), based on 16K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 44% → 35%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1000-1199: 38.7% win rate (36 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.6% win rate (125 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.6% win rate (328 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.6% win rate (533 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.0% win rate (1,571 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.4% win rate (4,606 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.6% win rate (7,282 games)
  • 2500+: 34.6% win rate (1,491 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (47%), worst in Classical (35%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 44.8% win rate (5,002 games)
  • Blitz: 47.1% win rate (10,139 games)
  • Rapid: 44.5% win rate (799 games)
  • Classical: 34.8% win rate (43 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (65 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (95 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (165 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (65 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (190 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (260 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (80 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (608 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (797 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (150 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (1,364 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (3,062 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (164 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (1,793 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (5,196 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (289 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.4% expected score (897 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (573 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 26.8% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Alekhine Defense
50.7%
Variations (5)
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation
47.1%
Alekhine Defense: Maróczy Variation
49.0%
Alekhine Defense: Normal Variation
49.9%
Alekhine Defense: Exchange Variation
47.4%
Alekhine Defense: Scandinavian Variation, Geschev Gambit
47.6%
Analyze Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation win rate?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 16K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation perform best?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 57.3% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.7%) outperforms Rapid (45.2%) by 5.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation has a sharpness score of 92.9 (decisive), meaning 92.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 39.0%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 125 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 44.5%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 328 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 48.2%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 533 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.4%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation has a 41.9% (90% CI: 40.7%-43.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.9% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation has a 57.3% (90% CI: 55.2%-59.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.8%) win rate for white (5.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.0%-45.6%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.0%.

What is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 42.3%-48.1%) win rate for white (799 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.3%.

Is the Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation a good opening?

The Alekhine Defense: Modern Variation, Flohr Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.