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King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit

117K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.3%

45%55%
Floor51.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.5%.

Measured over 117K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 117K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
117K
Best context
53.9% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
41.3% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
28 moves
Games that end decisively
97.2%
Draws
2.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +5.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.8% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 48.6%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.6% expected score (90 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (4,009 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (5,083 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (3,448 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 23.2% expected score (32 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.8% expected score (168 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (4,927 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (8,236 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (3,443 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (90 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 62.8% expected score (202 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (4,907 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (10,573 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (5,357 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (132 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 58.5% expected score (229 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (4,950 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (11,261 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (6,158 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (219 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (137 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (4,315 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (10,863 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (5,038 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (224 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (57 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (3,565 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (7,601 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (3,528 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (171 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (1,884 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (2,921 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (1,240 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (66 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (782 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (578 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (175 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (114 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 31.0% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Pawn Game
47.9%
Variations (5)
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation
48.7%
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack
51.8%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit
50.9%
King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense
50.0%
King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack
50.5%
Analyze King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit scores 51.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.0% and 51.5% — from 117K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
117K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit win rate?

Playing the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit, Black wins 49.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 117K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 52.8% (17K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 51.2% in Blitz (57K games) against 50.3% in Rapid (28K games).

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit?

The King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 37.9%, draws 7.8% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.8%. It rests on 145 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 57.8%, draws 1.2% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 901 Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 51.3%, draws 2.0% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 29K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 57K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 43.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 942 Lichess games.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.9% of its games and loses 47.3%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.