TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Scandinavian Defense

42 variations · 115M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Scandinavian Defense is balanced for White at 50.7% expected score.

This opening produces roughly even results, with outcomes depending more on middlegame play than opening choice.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 50.7% – 50.7%Aggregated from 42 variations
0%50.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.7% – 50.7%
ContextOverall · n=115M
Outcome Distribution
48.7%3.9%47.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.b3
Scandinavian Defense
Variations42
Games (Context)115M
Avg Length33 moves
Draw Rate3.9%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe VariationTop Pick
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Nf6 3.d4 Bg4 4.Bb5+ Nbd7 5.Be2
Min adv +18.5% · n=5.2K
60.4%
#2Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Leonhardt Gambit
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Qxd5 3.Nc3 Qa5 4.b4
Min adv +13.0% · n=710K
56.6%
#3Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Goteborg System
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Qxd5 3.Nc3 Qa5 4.d4 e5 5.Nf3
Min adv +11.9% · n=62K
56.3%
#4Scandinavian Defense: Grünfeld Variation
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Qxd5 3.Nc3 Qa5 4.d4 Nf6 5.Nf3 Bf5 6.Ne5 c6 7.g4
Min adv +11.2% · n=5.7K
56.7%
#5Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Nf6 3.d4 Bg4 4.f3 Bf5 5.Bb5+ Nbd7 6.Nc3
Min adv +11.2% · n=3.9K
56.9%
#6Scandinavian Defense: Lasker Variation
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Qxd5 3.Nc3 Qa5 4.d4 Nf6 5.Nf3 Bg4 6.h3
Min adv +7.5% · n=148K
54.0%
#7Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Nf6 3.d4 Bg4 4.f3 Bf5 5.Bb5+ Nbd7 6.c4
Min adv +4.4% · n=6.4K
53.3%
#8Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Nf6 3.d4 Bg4 4.f3 Bf5 5.g4
Min adv +1.0% · n=26K
51.0%
#9Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Wuss Variation
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Nf6 3.d4 Bg4 4.Be2
Min adv -1.6% · n=225K
49.4%
#10Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Classical Variation
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Nf6 3.d4 Bg4 4.Nf3
Min adv -2.7% · n=141K
48.9%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Scandinavian Defense expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Scandinavian Defense family has a 50.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.7% and 50.7%), aggregated from 42 variations and 115M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.2% win rate (6,816,370 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.1% win rate (10,786,911 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.3% win rate (15,644,026 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.6% win rate (20,766,228 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.2% win rate (23,454,384 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.2% win rate (20,593,824 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.7% win rate (11,181,062 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.8% win rate (4,701,331 games)
  • 2500+: 51.2% win rate (715,790 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.6% win rate (530,428 games)
  • Bullet: 48.4% win rate (46,797,260 games)
  • Blitz: 48.7% win rate (52,603,972 games)
  • Rapid: 49.7% win rate (14,262,898 games)
  • Classical: 50.7% win rate (465,368 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.1% expected score (14,159 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (1,737,870 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (3,530,718 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (1,522,257 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (11,366 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (32,865 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (3,264,620 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (5,372,282 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (2,075,295 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (41,849 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (76,448 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (5,300,092 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (7,632,509 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (2,549,213 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (85,764 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (122,831 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (7,505,830 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (10,168,332 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (2,835,441 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (133,794 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.4% expected score (126,937 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (9,093,094 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (11,418,679 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (2,698,878 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (116,796 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (97,020 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (9,187,436 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (9,380,690 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (1,866,918 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (61,760 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (43,480 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (6,534,359 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (3,978,725 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (612,094 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (12,404 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.0% expected score (15,150 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (3,533,538 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (1,050,603 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (100,451 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (1,589 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (1,538 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (640,421 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (71,434 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (2,351 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 79.5% expected score (46 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (42)

1
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation5.2K games
60.4%
2
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Leonhardt Gambit710K games
56.6%
3
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Goteborg System62K games
56.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Grünfeld Variation5.7K games
56.7%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation3.9K games
56.9%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation7.6K games
55.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Collijn Variation15K games
54.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Lasker Variation148K games
54.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation443K games
53.7%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack140K games
53.7%
Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation1.3M games
52.4%
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation28M games
52.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation6.4K games
53.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line655K games
51.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation18M games
51.1%
Scandinavian Defense: Richter Variation151K games
51.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation26K games
51.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense2.7M games
50.6%
Scandinavian Defense29M games
50.4%
Scandinavian Defense: Boehnke Gambit1.4M games
50.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation319K games
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation12M games
49.9%
Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne-Kloosterboer Gambit1.4M games
49.9%
Scandinavian Defense: Schiller-Pytel Variation137K games
50.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit1.3M games
49.4%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit271 games
54.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Wuss Variation225K games
49.4%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line11M games
49.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation203K games
49.4%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Classical Variation141K games
48.9%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation1.5M games
48.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation186K games
48.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit24K games
48.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation113K games
47.4%
Scandinavian Defense: Kloosterboer Gambit429K games
46.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit1.2M games
46.4%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Orthodox Attack12K games
46.4%
Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer1.3M games
45.4%
Scandinavian Defense: Schiller-Pytel Variation, Modern Variation1.3K games
44.9%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Banker Variation80K games
39.1%
Scandinavian Defense: Zilbermints Gambit5.5K games
39.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit107K games
37.2%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense win rate?

The Scandinavian Defense family has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.7%) win rate for white, aggregated from 42 variations and 115M rated games from Lichess.

How many Scandinavian Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 42 Scandinavian Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense family performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.2% win rate for white (716K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Scandinavian Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (50.7%) outperforms Bullet (48.4%) by 2.3% across all Scandinavian Defense variations.

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense?

Scandinavian Defense games are 96.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 33 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Scandinavian Defense a good opening family?

The Scandinavian Defense family is statistically balanced overall with a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.7%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 42 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.