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Scandinavian Defense

42 variations · 115M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

49.4%

45%55%
Floor49.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 115M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 115M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
#15 of 62
Games in this context
115M
Best context
57.9% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Worst context
37.8% at 2500+ UltraBullet
Variations measured
42
Average game length
33 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall
#1Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese GambitBest here
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Nf6 3.d4 Bg4
Floor 62.6% · 107K games
62.8%
#2Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Nf6 3.c4 c6
Floor 54.6% · 1.3M games
54.7%
#3Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Nf6 3.c4 e6
Floor 53.6% · 1.2M games
53.7%
#4Scandinavian Defense: Kloosterboer Gambit
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 c6 3.dxc6 e5
Floor 53.1% · 429K games
53.2%
#5Scandinavian Defense: Schiller-Pytel Variation, Modern Variation
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Qxd5 3.Nc3 Qd6 4.d4 Nf6 5.Bc4 c6 6.Nge2 Bf5 7.Bf4 Qb4
Floor 52.8% · 1.3K games
55.1%
#6Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Nf6 3.d4 Nxd5 4.c4 Nb4
Floor 52.4% · 113K games
52.7%
#7Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Qxd5 3.Nc3 Qd6 4.d4 Nf6 5.Nf3 a6
Floor 51.7% · 186K games
51.9%
#8Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Qxd5 3.Nc3 Qa5 4.d4 Nf6
Floor 51.5% · 1.5M games
51.6%
#9Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Nf6 3.d4 c6 4.dxc6 e5
Floor 51.2% · 24K games
51.8%
#10Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
1.e4 d5 2.exd5 Qxd5 3.Nc3 Qa5
Floor 50.8% · 11M games
50.8%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.5% at 0-999, 37.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.9% expected score (14,159 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,737,870 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (3,530,718 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (1,522,257 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (11,366 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (32,865 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (3,264,620 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (5,372,282 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (2,075,295 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (41,849 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (76,448 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (5,300,092 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (7,632,509 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (2,549,213 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (85,764 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (122,831 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (7,505,830 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (10,168,332 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (2,835,441 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (133,794 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (126,937 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (9,093,094 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (11,418,679 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (2,698,878 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (116,796 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (97,020 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (9,187,436 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (9,380,690 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (1,866,918 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (61,760 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.5% expected score (43,480 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (6,534,359 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (3,978,725 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (612,094 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (12,404 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 43.0% expected score (15,150 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (3,533,538 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (1,050,603 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (100,451 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (1,589 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 37.8% expected score (1,538 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (640,421 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (71,434 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.1% expected score (2,351 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 20.6% expected score (46 games)

42 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit107K games
62.8%Floor 62.6%
2
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Banker Variation80K games
60.9%Floor 60.7%
3
Scandinavian Defense: Zilbermints Gambit5.5K games
60.6%Floor 59.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer1.3M games
54.7%Floor 54.6%
Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit1.2M games
53.7%Floor 53.6%
Scandinavian Defense: Kloosterboer Gambit429K games
53.2%Floor 53.1%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Orthodox Attack12K games
53.6%Floor 52.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Schiller-Pytel Variation, Modern Variation1.3K games
55.1%Floor 52.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation113K games
52.7%Floor 52.4%
Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation186K games
51.9%Floor 51.7%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation1.5M games
51.6%Floor 51.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit24K games
51.8%Floor 51.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Classical Variation141K games
51.1%Floor 50.9%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line11M games
50.8%Floor 50.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit1.3M games
50.6%Floor 50.6%
Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation203K games
50.7%Floor 50.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Wuss Variation225K games
50.7%Floor 50.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation12M games
50.1%Floor 50.1%
Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne-Kloosterboer Gambit1.4M games
50.1%Floor 50.1%
Scandinavian Defense: Schiller-Pytel Variation137K games
50.0%Floor 49.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Boehnke Gambit1.4M games
49.7%Floor 49.7%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation319K games
49.8%Floor 49.7%
Scandinavian Defense29M games
49.7%Floor 49.7%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense2.7M games
49.5%Floor 49.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation18M games
48.9%Floor 48.9%
Scandinavian Defense: Richter Variation151K games
49.1%Floor 48.9%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation26K games
49.0%Floor 48.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line655K games
48.3%Floor 48.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation28M games
47.8%Floor 47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation1.3M games
47.7%Floor 47.6%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation443K games
46.4%Floor 46.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack140K games
46.4%Floor 46.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Lasker Variation148K games
46.0%Floor 45.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation6.4K games
46.8%Floor 45.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Collijn Variation15K games
45.5%Floor 44.9%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation7.6K games
44.5%Floor 43.6%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Goteborg System62K games
43.8%Floor 43.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Leonhardt Gambit710K games
43.4%Floor 43.4%
Scandinavian Defense: Grünfeld Variation5.7K games
43.4%Floor 42.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation3.9K games
43.1%Floor 41.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit271 games
45.8%Floor 40.9%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation5.2K games
39.6%Floor 38.5%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense family scores 49.4% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 49.4% — from 115M Lichess games across 42 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
115M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense win rate?

Across the Scandinavian Defense's 42 variations, Black wins 47.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 115M rated games from Lichess.

How many Scandinavian Defense variations are there?

42 Scandinavian Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense family performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 49.9% (23M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Scandinavian Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scandinavian Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.1% in Blitz (53M games) against 47.9% in Rapid (14M games).

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense?

Scandinavian Defense games are 96.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 33 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Scandinavian Defense a good opening family?

The Scandinavian Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 47.4% and loses 48.7%. Results differ between its 42 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.