Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
11M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 11M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 11M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 11M
- Best context
- 53.6% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 42.0% at 2000-2199 Classical
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.9% at 0-999, 40.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.4% expected score (190 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (114,988 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (149,784 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (40,582 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (164 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (473 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (296,285 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (455,797 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (129,258 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (1,169 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (1,009 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (491,354 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (846,055 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (276,444 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (4,846 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (709 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (637,082 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,170,903 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (370,153 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (13,490 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (523 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (651,656 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (1,295,029 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (365,060 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (17,415 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 34.2% expected score (185 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (597,495 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (1,068,729 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (252,074 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (8,680 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.7% expected score (25 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (410,178 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (471,994 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (77,984 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (1,550 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (232,773 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (121,477 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (12,003 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 34.4% expected score (156 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (52,627 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (7,213 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (227 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line scores 50.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.8% and 50.9% — from 11M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 11M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line win rate?
Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 11M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line perform best?
The Scandinavian Defense: Main Line performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 51.6% (2.3M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.7% in Blitz (5.6M games) against 48.8% in Rapid (1.5M games).
How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line?
The Scandinavian Defense: Main Line has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.1%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 306K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.2%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 883K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 1.6M Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 2.2M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 2.3M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 1.9M Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 962K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 366K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.1%, draws 6.1% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 47.2%, draws 0.7% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 50.7%, draws 2.7% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 3.5M Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 5.6M Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 44.4%, draws 5.5% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 47K Lichess games.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line a good opening?
The Scandinavian Defense: Main Line is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.9% of its games and loses 47.3%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.