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Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense

2.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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3...Qd6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.5%

45%55%
Floor49.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.7M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.7M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.7M
Best context
51.4% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
40.4% at 1200-1399 Classical
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.9%
Draws
4.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Qd6 · Black wins: 47.4% · 2.7M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 48.7% at 0-999, 38.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.0% expected score (80 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (28,779 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (42,182 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (12,833 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (65 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (118 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (69,251 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (101,087 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (29,174 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (364 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (315 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (123,078 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (167,257 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (49,025 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (1,131 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (301 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (169,916 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (239,692 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (58,512 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (2,344 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (237 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (193,375 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (276,883 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (56,466 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (2,665 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (87 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (197,750 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (265,335 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (40,595 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (1,634 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (34 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (160,875 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (157,431 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (17,335 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (591 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (113,064 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (71,986 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (5,543 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (114 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (25,206 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (9,283 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (250 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation
46.6%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense scores 49.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.5% and 49.6% — from 2.7M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.7M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate?

Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 2.7M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 50.7% (505K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 49.2% in Blitz (1.3M games) against 46.0% in Rapid (270K games).

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense?

The Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 84K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.1%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 200K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 341K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 471K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 530K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 505K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.6%, draws 5.3% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 336K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.7%, draws 5.9% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 191K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 42.6%, draws 8.3% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.4%, draws 1.5% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 49.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 1.1M Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 270K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.9%, draws 7.1% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.4% of its games and loses 48.5%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.