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Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense

2.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.5%Range (90% confident): 49.5% – 49.6%Based on 2.7M games
0%49.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.5% – 49.6%
Outcome Distribution
47.4%4.1%48.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Qd6
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
Analyzen=2.7M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 49.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.5% and 49.6%), based on 2.7M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Qd6 · Black wins: 47.4% · n=2.7M

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.2% win rate (83,939 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.1% win rate (199,994 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.9% win rate (340,806 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.9% win rate (470,765 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.4% win rate (529,626 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.3% win rate (505,401 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.6% win rate (336,266 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.7% win rate (190,711 games)
  • 2500+: 42.6% win rate (34,744 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (49%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.4% win rate (1,176 games)
  • Bullet: 49.2% win rate (1,081,294 games)
  • Blitz: 46.8% win rate (1,331,136 games)
  • Rapid: 43.5% win rate (269,733 games)
  • Classical: 41.9% win rate (8,913 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.0% expected score (80 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (28,779 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (42,182 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (12,833 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (65 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (118 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (69,251 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (101,087 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (29,174 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (364 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (315 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (123,078 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (167,257 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (49,025 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (1,131 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (301 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (169,916 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (239,692 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (58,512 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (2,344 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (237 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (193,375 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (276,883 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (56,466 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (2,665 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (87 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (197,750 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (265,335 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (40,595 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (1,634 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (34 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (160,875 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (157,431 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (17,335 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (591 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (113,064 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (71,986 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (5,543 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (114 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (25,206 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (9,283 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (250 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation
46.6%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate?

The Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.7M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 51.8% win rate for white (200K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.1%) by 2.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense?

The Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 84K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 200K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 341K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 471K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.6%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 530K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 505K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 47.1% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 336K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 191K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.3% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-51.5%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.6%-47.8%) win rate for white (1.1M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.5%) win rate for white (1.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.7%) win rate for white (270K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.9%) win rate for white (8.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.1%.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense is statistically balanced with a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.