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Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation

1.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4...Nf6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.6%

45%55%
Floor51.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 1.5M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.5M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.5M
Best context
53.2% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
46.5% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Qa5 · Black wins: 49.8% · 1.4M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.7% at 0-999, 40.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (10,068 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (10,869 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (2,629 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.3% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (29,604 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (36,702 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (10,351 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (62 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 52.2% expected score (44 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (52,304 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (86,901 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (24,731 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (423 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (61 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (80,482 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (152,404 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (42,572 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (1,314 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (42 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (94,698 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (209,103 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (55,573 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (2,235 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (86,065 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (188,070 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (49,343 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (1,617 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (65,880 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (99,452 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (18,817 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (495 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (54,991 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (39,947 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (4,928 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (76 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (17,073 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (4,552 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (176 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation scores 51.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.5% and 51.6% — from 1.5M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.5M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation win rate?

Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation, Black wins 49.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 1.5M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 52.1% (362K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.6% in Blitz (828K games) against 49.5% in Rapid (209K games).

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation?

The Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 49.9%, draws 2.2% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 77K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 164K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 277K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 362K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 325K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.4%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 185K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.3%, draws 5.3% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 100K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 45.2%, draws 6.5% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 51.4%, draws 0.8% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 196 Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 50.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 491K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 828K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 209K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 45.3%, draws 6.3% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.7% of its games and loses 46.6%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.