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Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation

18M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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3...Qd8
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.9%

45%55%
Floor48.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 18M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 18M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
18M
Best context
65.4% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Worst context
38.2% at 2000-2199 Classical
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.9%
Draws
4.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Qe6+ · Black wins: 56.1% · 18M games

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.7% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.4% at 0-999, 32.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (798 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (227,022 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (226,289 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (62,934 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (408 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.1% expected score (2,183 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (582,836 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (641,678 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (164,722 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (1,963 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (7,077 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,047,152 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,178,051 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (293,641 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (6,261 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.3% expected score (7,460 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (1,589,797 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (1,734,661 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (401,589 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.7% expected score (14,941 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.1% expected score (6,492 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,979,272 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (1,931,134 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (402,449 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.2% expected score (15,109 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (3,092 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,847,868 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (1,270,991 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (248,600 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (6,770 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.9% expected score (1,844 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,154,958 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (392,100 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (58,357 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.2% expected score (961 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (667 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (534,013 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (82,595 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.6% expected score (7,009 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (132 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 26.5% expected score (56 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (92,094 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (5,110 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 29.9% expected score (168 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 14.7% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation
46.6%
Continuations (2)
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line
49.4%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation
47.8%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation scores 48.9% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 48.9% — from 18M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
18M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate?

Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Black wins 46.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 18M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 49.5% (4.3M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.8% in Blitz (7.5M games) against 45.3% in Rapid (1.6M games).

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation?

The Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 517K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 2.5M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 3.7M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 4.3M Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 3.4M Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.0% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 1.6M Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.3%, draws 5.4% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 624K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.4%, draws 6.6% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 97K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 52.2%, draws 1.6% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 30K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 9.1M Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.3%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 7.5M Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 1.6M Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 39.3%, draws 5.8% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.2%. It rests on 47K Lichess games.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.8% of its games and loses 49.0%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.