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Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation

12M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.1%

45%55%
Floor50.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 12M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 12M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
12M
Best context
63.7% at 1000-1199 UltraBullet
Worst context
38.9% at 2200-2499 UltraBullet
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
95.8%
Draws
4.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...g5? · Black wins: 52.1% · 6.4M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.6% at 0-999, 32.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.9% expected score (361 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (87,490 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (94,972 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (35,730 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (231 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.7% expected score (1,024 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (243,469 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (274,194 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (79,891 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (1,000 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (3,118 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (483,147 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (610,779 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (177,470 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (3,084 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (5,584 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (707,448 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,059,675 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (305,955 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (10,514 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (7,387 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (855,155 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (1,426,984 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (395,058 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (16,343 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (6,189 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (920,871 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,339,950 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (315,037 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (11,531 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (3,124 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (724,462 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (647,773 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (122,186 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (2,512 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (928 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (426,266 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (170,226 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (19,499 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.6% expected score (275 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (65 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (83,371 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (8,154 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (398 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 8.9% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation
46.6%
Continuations (2)
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation
51.4%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit
52.7%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation scores 50.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.1% and 50.2% — from 12M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
12M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate?

Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Black wins 48.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 12M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.3% (219K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.1% in Blitz (5.6M games) against 49.7% in Rapid (1.5M games).

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation?

The Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 219K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 600K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 2.1M Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 2.7M Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 2.6M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 617K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.8%, draws 6.8% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 92K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 4.5M Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 47.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 5.6M Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 47.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 46.8%, draws 6.1% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 45K Lichess games.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.0% of its games and loses 47.8%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.