TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation

12M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score50.1%Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 50.2%Based on 12M games
0%50.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 50.2%
Outcome Distribution
48.0%4.2%47.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.d4
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
Analyzen=12M
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 50.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.1% and 50.2%), based on 12M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...g5? · Black wins: 52.1% · n=6.4M

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.7% win rate (218,784 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.8% win rate (599,578 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.6% win rate (1,277,598 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.2% win rate (2,089,176 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.4% win rate (2,700,927 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.4% win rate (2,593,578 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.2% win rate (1,500,057 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.4% win rate (617,194 games)
  • 2500+: 41.8% win rate (91,995 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.7% win rate (27,780 games)
  • Bullet: 48.7% win rate (4,531,679 games)
  • Blitz: 47.7% win rate (5,632,707 games)
  • Rapid: 47.2% win rate (1,451,224 games)
  • Classical: 46.8% win rate (45,497 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.9% expected score (361 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (87,490 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (94,972 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (35,730 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (231 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.7% expected score (1,024 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (243,469 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (274,194 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (79,891 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (1,000 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (3,118 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (483,147 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (610,779 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (177,470 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.5% expected score (3,084 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (5,584 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (707,448 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,059,675 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (305,955 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (10,514 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (7,387 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (855,155 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (1,426,984 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (395,058 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (16,343 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (6,189 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (920,871 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (1,339,950 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (315,037 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.7% expected score (11,531 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (3,124 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (724,462 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (647,773 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (122,186 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (2,512 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (928 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (426,266 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (170,226 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (19,499 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.6% expected score (275 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (65 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (83,371 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (8,154 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (398 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 8.9% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation
46.6%
Continuations (2)
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation
51.4%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit
52.7%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate?

The Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.8%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 12M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.4% win rate for white (92K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (48.1%) outperforms Classical (47.1%) by 1.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation?

The Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 46.0%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 219K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 600K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.3%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.1M Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.7M Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.6M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 617K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 92K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.4%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.1%) win rate for white (4.5M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.6%-47.6%) win rate for white (5.6M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.7%-47.9%) win rate for white (1.5M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.5%) win rate for white (45K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.8%-47.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.