TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer

1.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
Black Expected Score54.7%Range (90% confident): 54.6% – 54.8%Based on 1.3M games
0%54.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.6% – 54.8%
Outcome Distribution
52.7%3.9%43.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...c6
Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer
Analyzen=1.3M
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 54.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 54.6% and 54.8%), based on 1.3M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 57% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 56.6% win rate (13,675 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.9% win rate (45,896 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.4% win rate (108,887 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.8% win rate (208,537 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.9% win rate (347,708 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.2% win rate (383,988 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.0% win rate (179,865 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.1% win rate (52,514 games)
  • 2500+: 42.4% win rate (6,020 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~54%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.2% win rate (277 games)
  • Bullet: 53.8% win rate (388,263 games)
  • Blitz: 52.3% win rate (760,307 games)
  • Rapid: 52.2% win rate (191,845 games)
  • Classical: 51.5% win rate (6,398 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.7% expected score (5,921 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (6,315 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (1,422 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.3% expected score (18 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (17,138 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (23,179 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (5,528 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (47 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (35,800 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (56,031 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (16,747 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (262 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 59.8% expected score (60 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (60,324 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (113,553 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (33,198 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (1,402 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.3% expected score (47 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (77,200 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (212,302 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (55,735 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (2,424 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (57 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (88,374 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (236,849 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (56,818 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (1,890 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (63,429 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (95,679 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (20,383 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (351 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (34,432 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (16,029 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (2,010 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (5,645 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (370 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate?

The Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 43.4% (90% CI: 43.3%-43.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.9% win rate for white (6.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (43.5%) outperforms Classical (42.4%) by 1.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer?

The Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 41.3% (90% CI: 40.6%-42.0%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 43.5% (90% CI: 43.1%-43.9%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.5%-44.0%) win rate for white, based on 109K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 44.1% (90% CI: 43.9%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 209K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 43.3% (90% CI: 43.2%-43.5%) win rate for white, based on 348K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 42.6% (90% CI: 42.4%-42.7%) win rate for white, based on 384K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 43.3% (90% CI: 43.1%-43.5%) win rate for white, based on 180K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 53K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 46.9% (90% CI: 42.0%-51.8%) win rate for white (277 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 43.5% (90% CI: 43.4%-43.6%) win rate for white (388K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 43.4% (90% CI: 43.3%-43.5%) win rate for white (760K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 43.1% (90% CI: 43.0%-43.3%) win rate for white (192K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a 42.4% (90% CI: 41.4%-43.4%) win rate for white (6.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer is slightly favors black with a 43.4% (90% CI: 43.3%-43.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.