Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer
1.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
54.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.8%.
Measured over 1.3M games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.3M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.3M
- Best context
- 59.7% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 46.1% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.1%
- Draws
- 3.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.2% at 0-999, 44.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.7% expected score (5,921 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (6,315 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (1,422 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (12 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.3% expected score (18 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (17,138 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (23,179 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (5,528 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (33 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (47 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (35,800 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (56,031 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (16,747 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (262 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 59.8% expected score (60 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (60,324 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (113,553 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (33,198 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (1,402 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.3% expected score (47 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (77,200 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (212,302 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (55,735 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (2,424 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (57 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (88,374 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (236,849 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (56,818 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (1,890 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (23 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (63,429 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (95,679 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (20,383 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (351 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (34,432 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (16,029 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (2,010 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (23 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (5,645 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (370 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer scores 54.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.6% and 54.8% — from 1.3M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.3M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate?
Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer, Black wins 52.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 1.3M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer perform best?
The Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 57.7% (14K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.5% in Blitz (760K games) against 54.6% in Rapid (192K games).
How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer?
The Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 56.6%, draws 2.1% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 53.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 46K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 53.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 109K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 209K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 348K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 53.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 384K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 52.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 180K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.1%, draws 5.3% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 53K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.4%, draws 6.7% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 6.0K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 51.2%, draws 2.0% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 277 Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 53.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 388K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 52.3%, draws 4.2% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 760K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 52.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 192K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 51.5%, draws 6.2% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer a good opening?
The Scandinavian Defense: Panov Transfer is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 52.7% of its games and loses 43.4%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.