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Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation

28M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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2...Qxd5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.8%

40%55%
Floor47.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 28M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 28M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
28M
Best context
63.2% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Worst context
38.9% at 1200-1399 Classical
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Qe6+ · Black wins: 46.2% · 12M games

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.1% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.4% at 0-999, 42.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.2% expected score (2,605 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (501,342 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (962,745 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (391,222 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (3,032 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (4,733 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (934,317 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (1,639,512 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (589,302 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (11,114 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (9,320 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,400,656 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (2,151,370 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (678,802 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (23,479 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (12,567 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (1,937,665 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (2,653,442 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (649,293 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (33,144 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (13,919 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (2,341,547 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (2,811,831 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (543,173 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (21,431 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (10,909 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (2,264,737 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (2,145,491 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (337,648 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (9,646 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (5,020 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (1,518,524 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (727,369 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (88,579 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (1,547 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.3% expected score (1,435 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (700,999 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (146,089 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (11,641 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (178 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 37.1% expected score (64 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (100,139 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (10,609 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.0% expected score (154 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation
46.6%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation scores 47.8% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 47.8% — from 28M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
28M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate?

Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation, Black wins 45.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 28M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 49.1% (4.8M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.1% in Blitz (13M games) against 43.8% in Rapid (3.3M games).

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation?

The Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 44.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 1.9M Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 3.2M Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 4.3M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 5.3M Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 5.7M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 4.8M Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 2.3M Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 860K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.6%, draws 6.5% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 111K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.3%, draws 1.8% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 61K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 12M Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 13M Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.3%, draws 5.0% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.8%. It rests on 3.3M Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 38.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 56.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.6%. It rests on 104K Lichess games.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.8% of its games and loses 50.2%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.