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Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit

1.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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3...Nxc6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.6%

45%55%
Floor50.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 1.3M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.3M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.3M
Best context
57.6% at 1600-1799 UltraBullet
Worst context
41.7% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +2.8% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.9% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 48.0%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.9% expected score (67 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (13,478 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (21,152 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (8,177 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 26.4% expected score (43 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 71.8% expected score (111 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (24,106 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (48,427 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (14,841 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (216 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (227 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (38,847 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (78,777 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (26,468 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 43.8% expected score (515 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 66.9% expected score (360 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (53,917 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (107,603 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (37,671 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (1,367 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (617 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (73,970 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (150,771 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (39,619 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (1,339 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (625 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (91,804 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (146,131 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (32,145 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.9% expected score (1,135 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (488 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (82,670 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (81,629 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (11,286 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (230 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (276 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (74,658 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (26,684 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (1,927 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (29 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.6% expected score (130 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (21,321 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (1,573 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.2% expected score (84 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit scores 50.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.6% and 50.7% — from 1.3M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.3M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit win rate?

Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit, Black wins 48.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 1.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 51.3% (272K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.0% in Blitz (663K games) against 48.2% in Rapid (172K games).

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit?

The Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 48.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 43K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 88K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 145K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 201K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 266K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 272K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 176K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 104K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.6%, draws 5.9% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 23K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 54.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 50.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 475K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 48.0%, draws 3.9% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 663K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 46.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 172K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 45.1%, draws 4.2% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.8% of its games and loses 47.6%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.