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Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit

107K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

62.8%

45%70%
Floor62.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 63.1%.

Measured over 107K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 107K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
107K
Best context
70.0% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Worst context
49.0% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
28 moves
Games that end decisively
96.8%
Draws
3.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +26.9% · Breakpoint: Never

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 17.2% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.7% at 0-999, 43.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (160 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (197 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (181 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (452 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (315 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (85 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.0% expected score (1,518 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (1,186 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (213 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 71.7% expected score (79 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 63.8% expected score (3,895 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (3,657 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (684 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 69.3% expected score (102 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 66.9% expected score (7,618 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (8,667 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (1,953 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (133 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.5% expected score (73 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (11,609 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 62.4% expected score (15,546 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (2,725 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (183 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (34 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 69.4% expected score (12,615 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (13,360 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (2,374 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (71 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 67.6% expected score (8,792 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (5,893 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (740 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.4% expected score (1,731 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (398 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 19.6% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Continuations (8)
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Wuss Variation
46.7%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Classical Variation
46.7%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Banker Variation
37.7%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation
49.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation
53.1%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation
50.6%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation
57.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation
53.8%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit scores 62.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 62.6% and 63.1% — from 107K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
107K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate?

Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Black wins 61.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 35.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.8%. It rests on 107K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 64.7% (30K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 59.6% in Blitz (49K games) against 55.1% in Rapid (9.0K games).

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 54.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 548 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 57.4%, draws 1.7% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 867 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 57.7%, draws 2.0% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.7%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 60.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 37.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.3%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 60.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 36.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.3%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 63.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 33.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.7%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 62.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 34.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.7%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 58.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 36.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.1%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 55.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 39.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.1%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 66.7%, draws 1.9% and loses 31.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 67.7%. It rests on 341 Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 66.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 31.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 67.6%. It rests on 48K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 57.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.6%. It rests on 49K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 52.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 9.0K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 45.8%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 449 Lichess games.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 61.2% of its games and loses 35.6%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.