TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit

107K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
Black Expected Score62.8%Range (90% confident): 62.6% – 63.1%Based on 107K games
0%62.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 62.6% – 63.1%
Outcome Distribution
61.2%3.2%35.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Bg4
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit
Analyzen=107K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 62.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 62.6% and 63.1%), based on 107K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +26.9% · Breakpoint: Never

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 17.2% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~55%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 54.5% win rate (548 games)
  • 1000-1199: 57.4% win rate (867 games)
  • 1200-1399: 57.7% win rate (2,953 games)
  • 1400-1599: 60.0% win rate (8,346 games)
  • 1600-1799: 60.9% win rate (18,473 games)
  • 1800-1999: 63.2% win rate (30,136 games)
  • 2000-2199: 62.0% win rate (28,454 games)
  • 2200-2499: 58.9% win rate (15,448 games)
  • 2500+: 55.5% win rate (2,139 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (67%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 66.7% win rate (341 games)
  • Bullet: 66.5% win rate (48,390 games)
  • Blitz: 57.7% win rate (49,219 games)
  • Rapid: 52.6% win rate (8,965 games)
  • Classical: 45.8% win rate (449 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (160 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (197 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (181 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (452 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (315 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (85 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.0% expected score (1,518 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (1,186 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (213 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 71.7% expected score (79 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 63.8% expected score (3,895 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (3,657 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (684 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 69.3% expected score (102 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 66.9% expected score (7,618 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (8,667 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (1,953 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (133 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.5% expected score (73 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (11,609 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 62.4% expected score (15,546 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (2,725 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (183 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (34 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 69.4% expected score (12,615 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (13,360 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (2,374 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (71 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 67.6% expected score (8,792 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (5,893 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (740 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.4% expected score (1,731 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (398 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 19.6% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Continuations (8)
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Wuss Variation
46.7%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Classical Variation
46.7%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Banker Variation
37.7%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation
49.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation
53.1%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation
50.6%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation
57.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Melbourne Shuffle Variation
53.8%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 35.6% (90% CI: 35.3%-35.8%) win rate for white, based on 107K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 40.4% win rate for white (3.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (48.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (31.4%) by 17.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 40.9% (90% CI: 37.4%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 548 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 40.9% (90% CI: 38.2%-43.7%) win rate for white, based on 867 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 40.4% (90% CI: 38.9%-41.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 37.4% (90% CI: 36.6%-38.3%) win rate for white, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 36.4% (90% CI: 35.8%-37.0%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 33.9% (90% CI: 33.5%-34.3%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 34.6% (90% CI: 34.2%-35.1%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 36.8% (90% CI: 36.2%-37.4%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 39.3% (90% CI: 37.6%-41.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 31.4% (90% CI: 27.3%-35.6%) win rate for white (341 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 31.3% (90% CI: 30.9%-31.6%) win rate for white (48K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 38.5% (90% CI: 38.1%-38.9%) win rate for white (49K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 42.5% (90% CI: 41.7%-43.4%) win rate for white (9.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit has a 48.5% (90% CI: 44.6%-52.4%) win rate for white (449 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit is slightly favors black with a 35.6% (90% CI: 35.3%-35.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.