Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation
26K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.5%.
Measured over 26K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 26K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 26K
- Best context
- 56.4% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Worst context
- 43.8% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.8% at 0-999, 60.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (25 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 67.2% expected score (16 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (42 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 35.9% expected score (41 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (89 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (98 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 64.9% expected score (39 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (291 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (348 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 60.3% expected score (125 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (517 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (937 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (280 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 67.0% expected score (25 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,048 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (3,269 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (671 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (96 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (2,070 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (5,572 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (1,370 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 68.6% expected score (71 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (2,444 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (4,185 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (890 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.9% expected score (20 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (1,009 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (374 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.8% expected score (27 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation scores 51.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.5% and 51.5% — from 26K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 26K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation win rate?
Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation, White wins 49.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 26K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation perform best?
The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 52.1% (7.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 50.0% in Blitz (15K games) against 55.0% in Rapid (3.4K games).
How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation?
The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 50.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 226 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 49.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 768 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 46.1%, draws 2.1% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 47.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 5.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.0%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 50.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 15K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 52.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 63.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 31.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 66.0%. It rests on 218 Lichess games.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation a good opening?
The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Correspondence Refutation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.2% of its games and loses 47.2%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.