Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation
5.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
60.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 61.5%.
Measured over 5.2K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 6.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 5.2K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 5.2K
- Best context
- 63.0% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 57.9% at 2200-2499 Bullet
- Average game length
- 38 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.6%
- Draws
- 6.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 1000-1199, 61.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (21 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 61.7% expected score (37 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (60 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (196 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 59.2% expected score (375 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (35 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (350 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (1,027 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (147 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.9% expected score (547 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 63.0% expected score (1,373 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.9% expected score (160 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.7% expected score (582 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.6% expected score (249 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation scores 60.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 59.3% and 61.5% — from 5.2K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 5.2K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation win rate?
Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation, White wins 57.2%, draws 6.4% and loses 36.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.4%. It rests on 5.2K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation perform best?
The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 63.0% (835 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 61.1% in Blitz (3.1K games) against 61.4% in Rapid (371 games).
How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation?
The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 57.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 39.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.8%. It rests on 118 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 54.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 39.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 613 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 55.5%, draws 5.6% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 58.2%, draws 7.0% and loses 34.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.7%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 59.2%, draws 7.5% and loses 33.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.0%. It rests on 835 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 56.5%, draws 4.9% and loses 38.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.0%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 57.5%, draws 7.1% and loses 35.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.1%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 57.6%, draws 7.7% and loses 34.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.4%. It rests on 371 Lichess games.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation a good opening?
The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Lusophobe Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 57.2% of its games and loses 36.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.