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Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation

1.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.7%

40%55%
Floor47.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.8%.

Measured over 1.3M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.3M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.3M
Best context
57.7% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
41.5% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.7%
Draws
4.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 62.8% at 0-999, 35.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 74.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (5,979 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (5,657 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (3,452 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 75.3% expected score (42 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 63.7% expected score (119 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (16,709 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (10,119 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (2,569 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (88 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (229 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (41,033 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (32,034 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (6,503 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (124 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.2% expected score (804 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (67,216 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (79,487 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (17,656 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (564 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (574 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (91,418 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (156,218 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (37,856 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (1,613 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.0% expected score (463 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (112,448 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (197,121 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (46,392 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (1,951 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.9% expected score (225 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (92,054 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (122,557 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (23,878 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (541 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 35.3% expected score (104 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (61,174 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (43,350 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (4,600 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (83 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (12,087 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (2,376 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (109 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation scores 47.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.6% and 47.8% — from 1.3M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.3M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate?

Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation, Black wins 45.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 1.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 54.3% (15K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.5% in Blitz (649K games) against 45.9% in Rapid (143K games).

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation?

The Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 52.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.9%, draws 2.4% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 80K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 166K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 288K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 358K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.8%, draws 5.3% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 239K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.6%, draws 5.9% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 109K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.1%, draws 7.4% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.9%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 50.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 500K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 649K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 43.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 143K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.1%, draws 6.9% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.6%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Marshall Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.5% of its games and loses 50.2%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.