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Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation

113K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.7%

45%60%
Floor52.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.9%.

Measured over 113K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 113K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
113K
Best context
58.2% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
42.9% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.7%
Draws
3.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.6% at 0-999, 43.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (147 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (202 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (109 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (372 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (318 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (123 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (1,000 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (1,095 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (295 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (1,757 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (3,100 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (918 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 81.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (4,358 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (11,279 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (3,026 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (203 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (7,056 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (26,074 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (6,933 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (395 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (7,265 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (18,904 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (5,407 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (127 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (5,645 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (4,907 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (1,086 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (875 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (92 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation scores 52.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.4% and 52.9% — from 113K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
113K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate?

Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation, Black wins 51.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 113K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 53.5% (40K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.6% in Blitz (66K games) against 50.6% in Rapid (18K games).

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 50.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 461 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.3%, draws 2.1% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 817 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.3%, draws 1.7% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.5%, draws 1.9% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 51.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.3%, draws 6.0% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 970 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 55.4%, draws 2.1% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 66K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 47.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 787 Lichess games.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 51.0% of its games and loses 45.7%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.