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Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation

113K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.4%Range (90% confident): 47.1% – 47.6%Based on 113K games
0%47.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.1% – 47.6%
Outcome Distribution
45.7%3.3%51.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nb4
Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation
Analyzen=113K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a 47.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.1% and 47.6%), based on 113K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.0% win rate (461 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.6% win rate (817 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.9% win rate (2,401 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.7% win rate (5,813 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.3% win rate (18,874 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.9% win rate (40,461 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.9% win rate (31,703 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.5% win rate (11,650 games)
  • 2500+: 50.7% win rate (970 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (48%), worst in UltraBullet (33%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 33.3% win rate (18 games)
  • Bullet: 42.5% win rate (28,475 games)
  • Blitz: 46.6% win rate (65,971 games)
  • Rapid: 47.4% win rate (17,899 games)
  • Classical: 47.6% win rate (787 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (147 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (202 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (109 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (372 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (318 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (123 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,000 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,095 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (295 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (1,757 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (3,100 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (918 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (4,358 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (11,279 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (3,026 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (203 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (7,056 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (26,074 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (6,933 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (395 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (7,265 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (18,904 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (5,407 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (127 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (5,645 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (4,907 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (1,086 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (875 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (92 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack
51.7%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Collijn Variation
52.9%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Goteborg System
54.6%
Scandinavian Defense: Anderssen Counterattack, Orthodox Attack
44.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Blackburne Gambit
47.6%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 113K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 49.9% win rate for white (2.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (47.4%) outperforms Bullet (42.5%) by 4.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 43.2%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 461 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 45.7%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 817 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.5%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 45.8%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 48.1%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 970 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a 42.5% (90% CI: 42.0%-43.0%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.0%) win rate for white (66K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.0%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 44.7%-50.5%) win rate for white (787 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kiel Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.