Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation
443K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.5%.
Measured over 443K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 443K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 443K
- Best context
- 50.4% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 39.4% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 53.0% at 0-999, 38.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (1,078 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (691 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (174 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (4,309 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (3,180 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (549 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (23 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (11,610 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (13,287 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (2,261 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (38 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (20,725 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (36,085 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (8,229 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (176 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 68.9% expected score (25 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (24,988 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (68,419 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (17,924 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (636 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.4% expected score (20 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (28,394 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (78,672 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (20,631 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (822 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (22,065 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (40,230 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (9,788 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (235 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (12,949 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (10,699 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (1,795 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.7% expected score (27 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (2,118 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.4% expected score (553 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.0% expected score (29 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation scores 46.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.2% and 46.5% — from 443K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 443K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate?
Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation, Black wins 44.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 443K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation perform best?
The Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 47.1% (112K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.6% in Blitz (252K games) against 45.3% in Rapid (61K games).
How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation?
The Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 47.2%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.3%, draws 2.2% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 8.0K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.8%, draws 2.7% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 65K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 112K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.1%, draws 4.9% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 129K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.2%, draws 5.6% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 72K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.3%, draws 6.3% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.0%, draws 7.6% and loses 53.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 51.4%, draws 2.1% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 120 Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 128K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 44.1%, draws 4.9% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 252K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.6%, draws 5.2% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 61K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 40.6%, draws 7.8% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation a good opening?
The Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Gipslis Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.1% of its games and loses 51.4%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.