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Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit

1.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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3...e6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.7%

45%60%
Floor53.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 1.2M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.2M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
1.2M
Best context
59.2% at 1400-1599 Classical
Worst context
47.1% at 2500+ Bullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.4%
Draws
3.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +8.2% · Breakpoint: Never

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...e6?! · Black wins: 53.9% · 1.2M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.6% at 0-999, 44.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (4,095 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (5,184 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (1,273 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (13,511 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (19,783 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (4,760 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 65.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (32,990 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (53,565 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (15,722 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (274 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (66 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (52,230 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (117,660 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (35,265 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.2% expected score (1,305 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (57 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (67,464 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (200,861 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (61,343 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (3,248 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (51 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (73,179 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (207,778 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (60,118 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (2,423 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (53,473 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (82,094 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (20,316 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (396 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (23,914 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (17,686 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (2,109 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,205 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (718 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit scores 53.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.6% and 53.7% — from 1.2M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
1.2M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate?

Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit, Black wins 51.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 1.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 58.0% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.8% in Blitz (705K games) against 53.9% in Rapid (201K games).

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit?

The Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 56.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 53.8%, draws 2.5% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 53.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 103K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 207K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 333K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 51.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 344K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.4%, draws 4.4% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 156K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 44K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 44.2%, draws 6.1% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 54.9%, draws 1.7% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 260 Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 51.9%, draws 2.6% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 325K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 51.8%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 705K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 51.7%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 201K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 53.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 51.8% of its games and loses 44.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.