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Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit

1.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score53.7%Range (90% confident): 53.6% – 53.7%Based on 1.2M games
0%53.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.6% – 53.7%
Outcome Distribution
51.8%3.6%44.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...e6
Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit
Analyzen=1.2M
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 53.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 53.6% and 53.7%), based on 1.2M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +8.2% · Breakpoint: Never

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...e6?! · Black wins: 53.9% · n=1.2M

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 57% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 56.7% win rate (10,560 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.8% win rate (38,113 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.4% win rate (102,578 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.5% win rate (206,526 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.0% win rate (332,973 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.8% win rate (343,549 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.4% win rate (156,312 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.0% win rate (43,778 games)
  • 2500+: 44.2% win rate (4,944 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Rapid (52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.9% win rate (260 games)
  • Bullet: 51.9% win rate (325,061 games)
  • Blitz: 51.8% win rate (705,329 games)
  • Rapid: 51.7% win rate (200,927 games)
  • Classical: 53.0% win rate (7,756 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (4,095 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (5,184 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (1,273 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (13,511 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (19,783 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (4,760 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 65.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (32,990 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (53,565 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (15,722 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (274 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (66 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (52,230 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (117,660 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (35,265 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.2% expected score (1,305 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (57 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (67,464 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (200,861 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (61,343 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (3,248 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (51 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (73,179 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (207,778 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (60,118 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (2,423 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (53,473 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (82,094 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (20,316 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (396 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (23,914 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (17,686 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (2,109 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (4,205 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (718 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate?

The Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.5%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 49.7% win rate for white (4.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (45.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (43.4%) by 2.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit?

The Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 40.8% (90% CI: 40.0%-41.6%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 43.6% (90% CI: 43.2%-44.0%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 43.9% (90% CI: 43.7%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 103K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.3%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 207K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.4%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 333K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 44.2% (90% CI: 44.0%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 344K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 156K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 44K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 43.4% (90% CI: 38.4%-48.5%) win rate for white (260 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.4%-45.6%) win rate for white (325K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 44.3% (90% CI: 44.2%-44.4%) win rate for white (705K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.8%-44.2%) win rate for white (201K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit has a 42.0% (90% CI: 41.1%-42.9%) win rate for white (7.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Icelandic-Palme Gambit is slightly favors black with a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.5%-44.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.