6.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation has a 53.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.2% and 54.3%), based on 6.4K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 60% → 47%
Best in Classical (54%), worst in Rapid (49%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 6.4K rated games from Lichess.
The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (2.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (50.9%) outperforms Rapid (49.2%) by 1.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 39.9%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 265 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 48.4%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 991 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 47.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 50.8%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 42.6%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 315 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.5%-52.4%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.
In Blitz games, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-52.3%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.
In Rapid games, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 46.2%-52.2%) win rate for white (744 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.
The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Jadoul Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.