Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation
186K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.1%.
Measured over 186K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 186K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 186K
- Best context
- 58.6% at 1000-1199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 42.8% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.1%
- Draws
- 4.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 61.9% at 0-999, 40.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (245 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (221 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 67.9% expected score (32 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (1,321 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (1,313 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (236 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (5,066 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (4,453 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (773 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (7,875 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (10,729 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (2,104 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (51 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (10,035 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (19,077 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (3,851 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (169 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (15,158 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (22,797 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (3,965 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (247 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (15,671 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (17,773 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (2,144 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 34.6% expected score (138 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (16,505 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (14,050 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (1,125 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (49 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (6,048 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (2,389 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (57 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation scores 51.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.7% and 52.1% — from 186K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 186K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation win rate?
Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation, Black wins 49.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 186K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation perform best?
The Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 59.7% (498 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.5% in Blitz (93K games) against 50.4% in Rapid (14K games).
How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation?
The Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 58.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.7%. It rests on 498 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 54.4%, draws 2.4% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.9%, draws 5.0% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.8%, draws 5.6% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.9%, draws 6.6% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.2%, draws 7.1% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 50.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 78K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.6%, draws 5.7% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 93K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 47.2%, draws 6.3% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 43.7%, draws 7.1% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 668 Lichess games.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation a good opening?
The Scandinavian Defense: Bronstein Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.4% of its games and loses 45.7%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.