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Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit

24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.8%Range (90% confident): 51.2% – 52.3%Based on 24K games
0%51.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.2% – 52.3%
Outcome Distribution
49.5%4.5%46.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...e5
Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit
Analyzen=24K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.5%

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 51.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.2% and 52.3%), based on 24K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +3.1% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 96.3 · Trap factor: -11.4 · n=24K

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~44%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.0% win rate (36 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.8% win rate (96 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.2% win rate (333 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.7% win rate (1,043 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.3% win rate (4,035 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.5% win rate (8,887 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.8% win rate (6,451 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.0% win rate (2,862 games)
  • 2500+: 43.1% win rate (503 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (60%), worst in UltraBullet (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 39.1% win rate (10 games)
  • Bullet: 51.4% win rate (9,427 games)
  • Blitz: 48.8% win rate (13,052 games)
  • Rapid: 44.2% win rate (1,741 games)
  • Classical: 60.0% win rate (16 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (50 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (39 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (147 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (160 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (425 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (522 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (91 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (1,618 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (2,049 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (364 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (2,699 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (5,581 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (601 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (2,394 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (3,501 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (550 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (1,730 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 33.8% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (343 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (117 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.8% expected score (43 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 24K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.2% win rate for white (503 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (49.6%) outperforms Bullet (44.9%) by 4.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 45.0% (90% CI: 40.5%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 333 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 46.0% (90% CI: 43.5%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.3%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 44.4%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.2%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.4%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 47.6%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 503 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.7%) win rate for white (9.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.6%-47.0%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a 49.6% (90% CI: 47.6%-51.6%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit is slightly favors black with a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.