Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit

24K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
4...e5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.8%

45%60%
Floor51.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.3%.

Measured over 24K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 24K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
24K
Best context
55.3% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Worst context
46.8% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.5%
Draws
4.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +3.1% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 96.3 · Trap factor: −11.4 · 24K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 43.8%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (50 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (39 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (147 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (160 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (425 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (522 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (91 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (1,618 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (2,049 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (364 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (2,699 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (5,581 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (601 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (2,394 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (3,501 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (550 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (1,730 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 33.8% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (343 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (117 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.8% expected score (43 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit scores 51.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.2% and 52.3% — from 24K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
24K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate?

Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit, Black wins 49.5%, draws 4.5% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 24K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 52.6% (8.9K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.3% in Blitz (13K games) against 47.3% in Rapid (1.7K games).

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 52.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 333 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 50.7%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 49.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.4%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.5%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.0%, draws 6.1% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.1%, draws 5.6% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 503 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 51.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 9.4K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 48.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 44.2%, draws 6.2% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 1.7K Lichess games.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Kádas Gambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.5% of its games and loses 46.0%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.