Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation
203K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.9%.
Measured over 203K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 203K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 203K
- Best context
- 54.1% at 0-999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 45.2% at 0-999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.3%
- Draws
- 4.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 48.7% at 0-999, 43.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (2,455 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (2,703 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (673 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (5,374 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (9,002 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (2,857 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.6% expected score (20 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (8,027 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (15,140 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (5,974 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (80 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (9,063 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (18,391 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (7,944 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (268 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (9,142 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (20,235 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (7,178 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (342 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (7,734 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (17,913 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (6,119 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.9% expected score (278 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6,120 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (13,693 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (3,719 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (151 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (5,757 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (9,338 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,750 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 28.8% expected score (41 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (3,806 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (1,790 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (209 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation scores 50.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.5% and 50.9% — from 203K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 203K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation win rate?
Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation, Black wins 48.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 203K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation perform best?
The Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.3% (5.8K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.9% in Blitz (108K games) against 49.4% in Rapid (36K games).
How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation?
The Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 51.1%, draws 2.4% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 50.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 47.7%, draws 5.2% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.1%, draws 6.3% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.5%, draws 7.1% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 43.7%, draws 11.3% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 57K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.4%, draws 5.0% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 108K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 42.2%, draws 8.7% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation a good opening?
The Scandinavian Defense: Classical Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.3% of its games and loses 47.0%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.