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Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line

655K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.3%

45%55%
Floor48.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.4%.

Measured over 655K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 655K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
655K
Best context
51.8% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
41.8% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
95.2%
Draws
4.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.1% at 0-999, 34.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (5,096 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (4,031 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (875 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (16,764 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (14,733 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (3,321 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 18.6% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.3% expected score (69 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (30,886 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (34,852 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (7,305 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (130 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (234 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (48,365 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (60,583 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (12,939 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (519 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (307 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (67,620 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (83,347 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (16,634 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (712 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (187 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (64,270 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (60,296 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (14,438 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (471 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.2% expected score (107 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (38,327 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (24,484 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (5,065 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 35.9% expected score (115 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 34.0% expected score (39 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (21,330 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (9,021 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (1,080 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (5,378 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (985 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line scores 48.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.2% and 48.4% — from 655K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
655K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line win rate?

Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 655K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 48.9% (169K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.8% in Blitz (292K games) against 45.8% in Rapid (62K games).

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line?

The Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 35K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 123K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 169K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 140K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.7%, draws 5.8% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 68K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.6%, draws 6.9% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.9%, draws 8.4% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games, which average 44 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.0%, draws 2.1% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 973 Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 298K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 45.0%, draws 5.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 292K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.8%, draws 5.9% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 62K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 40.3%, draws 8.8% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Main Line is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.9% of its games and loses 49.4%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.