Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation
319K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.0%.
Measured over 319K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 319K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 319K
- Best context
- 52.8% at 1600-1799 Bullet
- Worst context
- 42.8% at 1200-1399 Rapid
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.6% at 0-999, 41.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,273 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (1,280 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (354 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 67.1% expected score (19 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (3,623 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (3,480 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (1,035 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (44 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (8,322 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (6,862 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (2,060 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.0% expected score (43 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.2% expected score (109 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (15,501 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (13,590 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.1% expected score (3,612 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (169 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (157 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (27,333 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (26,094 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (6,158 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (260 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.6% expected score (157 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (40,993 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (34,110 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (5,718 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (174 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (194 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (40,774 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (23,074 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (2,491 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (58 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 26.8% expected score (87 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (31,356 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (7,891 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (469 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (9,381 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (739 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 23.0% expected score (17 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation scores 49.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.7% and 50.0% — from 319K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 319K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation win rate?
Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation, Black wins 47.4%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 319K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation perform best?
The Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 50.7% (81K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.6% in Blitz (117K games) against 45.9% in Rapid (22K games).
How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation?
The Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 47.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.4%, draws 4.6% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 81K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 67K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.5%, draws 5.5% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 41.4%, draws 7.5% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 51.4%, draws 2.3% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 775 Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 179K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.7%, draws 5.8% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 117K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 42.7%, draws 6.3% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 39.4%, draws 7.3% and loses 53.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 730 Lichess games.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation a good opening?
The Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation, Ilundain Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.4% of its games and loses 47.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.