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Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation

7.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score44.5%Range (90% confident): 43.6% – 45.5%Based on 7.6K games
0%44.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 43.6% – 45.5%
Outcome Distribution
42.1%4.8%53.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...c6
Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation
Analyzen=7.6K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.8%

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation has a 44.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 43.6% and 45.5%), based on 7.6K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -8.9% · Breakpoint: 1400-1599

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 89.9 · Trap factor: -1.4 · n=7.6K

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 54% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 54.4% win rate (27 games)
  • 1000-1199: 55.6% win rate (12 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.8% win rate (38 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.7% win rate (130 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.4% win rate (417 games)
  • 1800-1999: 41.0% win rate (1,428 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.7% win rate (2,400 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.4% win rate (2,460 games)
  • 2500+: 39.7% win rate (722 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (49%), worst in Classical (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.6% win rate (16 games)
  • Bullet: 44.5% win rate (2,487 games)
  • Blitz: 41.7% win rate (4,384 games)
  • Rapid: 36.3% win rate (707 games)
  • Classical: 34.9% win rate (40 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199———
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (75 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (121 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (220 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (65 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (375 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (870 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (163 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (582 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (1,521 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (285 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (902 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (1,412 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 31.8% expected score (141 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.5% expected score (452 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (262 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 23.7% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.1%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 7.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 54.9% win rate for white (1.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (56.2%) outperforms Bullet (52.6%) by 3.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 44.9%-59.2%) win rate for white, based on 130 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation has a 55.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-59.3%) win rate for white, based on 417 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 52.8%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.5%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 50.2%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 722 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 50.9%-54.2%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.5%-54.0%) win rate for white (4.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation has a 56.2% (90% CI: 53.2%-59.3%) win rate for white (707 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.1%-54.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.