Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation

7.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
4...c6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

44.5%

40%55%
Floor43.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.5%.

Measured over 7.6K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 7.6K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
7.6K
Best context
48.6% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
41.4% at 1800-1999 Blitz
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
95.2%
Draws
4.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −8.9% · Breakpoint: 1400-1599

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 89.9 · Trap factor: −1.4 · 7.6K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.6% at 0-999, 37.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199———
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (75 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (121 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (220 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (65 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (375 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (870 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (163 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (582 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (1,521 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (285 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (902 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (1,412 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 31.8% expected score (141 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.5% expected score (452 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (262 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 23.7% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
50.2%
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation scores 44.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.6% and 45.5% — from 7.6K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
7.6K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate?

Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation, Black wins 42.1%, draws 4.8% and loses 53.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 7.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation performs best for Black at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 45.1% (2.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 44.5% in Blitz (4.4K games) against 40.1% in Rapid (707 games).

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 130 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 42.4%, draws 2.3% and loses 55.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 417 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 41.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.4%, draws 5.5% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.7%, draws 7.0% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.2%. It rests on 722 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 41.7%, draws 5.6% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.5%. It rests on 4.4K Lichess games.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 36.3%, draws 7.4% and loses 56.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.1%. It rests on 707 Lichess games.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Portuguese Gambit, Elbow Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.1% of its games and loses 53.1%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.