Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit
271 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
45.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.8%.
Measured over 271 games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 271 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 271
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.9%
- Draws
- 3.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 30.0%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (15 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (47 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (42 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 28.7% expected score (22 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.0% expected score (42 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (41 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit scores 45.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 40.9% and 50.8% — from 271 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 271+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit win rate?
Playing the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit, Black wins 44.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 271 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit perform best?
The Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 51.0% (100 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit?
The Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.7%, draws 0.5% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 100 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 42.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 104 Lichess games.
What is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 144 Lichess games.
Is the Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit a good opening?
The Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation, Wing Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.2% of its games and loses 52.7%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.