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King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit

8.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.6%Range (90% confident): 45.7% – 47.4%Based on 8.8K games
0%46.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.7% – 47.4%
Outcome Distribution
45.0%3.1%51.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Bd7
King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit
Analyzen=8.8K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.1%

What is the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit has a 46.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.7% and 47.4%), based on 8.8K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -4.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 27%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.4% win rate (851 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.3% win rate (1,280 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.6% win rate (1,916 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.8% win rate (1,724 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.2% win rate (1,534 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.8% win rate (913 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.0% win rate (471 games)
  • 2200-2499: 35.5% win rate (59 games)
  • 2500+: 27.3% win rate (4 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (61%), worst in Classical (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.6% win rate (95 games)
  • Bullet: 46.6% win rate (4,245 games)
  • Blitz: 44.3% win rate (3,279 games)
  • Rapid: 39.5% win rate (1,084 games)
  • Classical: 38.6% win rate (49 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (288 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (394 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (166 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (485 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (557 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (217 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 34.2% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (815 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (782 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (256 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (764 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (688 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.5% expected score (239 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 78.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (845 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (540 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (133 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (605 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (243 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (61 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (385 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (72 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 27.8% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 38.3% expected score (54 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Pawn Game
47.9%
Variations (5)
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation
48.7%
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack
51.8%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit
50.9%
King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense
50.0%
King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack
50.5%
Analyze King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit win rate?

The King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 8.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 54.1% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (55.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (37.8%) by 17.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit?

The King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 47.3%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 851 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit has a 54.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit has a 53.6% (90% CI: 51.8%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.1%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.1%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 50.3%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 913 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 47.1%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 471 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.8%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-53.1%) win rate for white (3.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit has a 55.0% (90% CI: 52.5%-57.4%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Philidor Gambit is statistically favors white with a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.