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King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening

2.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.0%

40%55%
Floor46.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.0M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.0M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.0M
Best context
56.2% at 1800-1999 UltraBullet
Worst context
29.5% at 1400-1599 Classical
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.4% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 45.0% at 0-999, 42.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (1,886 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (110,433 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (263,838 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (135,175 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (2,052 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.1% expected score (3,327 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (106,792 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (195,170 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (89,792 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (3,742 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (3,923 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (108,793 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (156,249 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.3% expected score (62,873 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.9% expected score (4,383 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.7% expected score (3,771 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (122,942 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (118,790 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 37.3% expected score (40,559 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 29.5% expected score (4,602 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 52.3% expected score (1,958 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (118,716 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (92,030 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.2% expected score (21,048 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (1,111 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (750 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (97,655 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (56,539 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (11,709 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (251 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (217 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (54,418 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (19,872 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (2,492 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.8% expected score (43 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (19,400 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (4,211 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (541 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (1,972 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (263 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 39.9% expected score (28 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Pawn Game
47.9%
Variations (5)
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation
48.7%
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack
51.8%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit
50.9%
King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense
50.0%
King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack
50.5%
Analyze King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening scores 46.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.0% and 46.1% — from 2.0M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.0M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening win rate?

Playing the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening, White wins 44.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 2.0M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 47.9% (167K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.9% in Blitz (907K games) against 43.0% in Rapid (364K games).

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening?

The King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 43.1%, draws 4.7% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 513K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 44.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 399K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 44.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 336K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 42.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 291K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 45.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 235K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 46.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 167K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 45.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 77K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 44.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 42.7%, draws 5.3% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 46.5%, draws 1.6% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 46.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 741K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 43.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 907K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 40.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 364K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 35.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 59.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.9%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.

Is the King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: King's Head Opening is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 44.1% of its games and loses 52.1%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.