King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening
532K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.2%.
Measured over 532K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 532K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 532K
- Best context
- 60.6% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 45.0% at 0-999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 44.5% at 0-999, 51.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.8% expected score (53 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (8,362 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (26,970 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (15,475 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (182 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.3% expected score (109 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (15,140 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (29,343 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (14,675 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (406 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (251 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (20,487 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (41,552 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (17,557 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.4% expected score (629 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (707 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (19,148 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (50,351 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (21,012 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (1,184 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (790 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (26,893 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (70,136 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (22,804 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (1,005 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.1% expected score (32 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (23,602 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (48,600 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (11,674 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (216 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (22 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (12,857 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (15,113 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (4,357 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (21 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (6,265 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (2,614 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (371 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (740 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (357 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (16 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening scores 50.1% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.0% and 50.2% — from 532K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 532K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening win rate?
Playing the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening, White wins 48.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 532K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening perform best?
The King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening performs best for White at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 51.3% (122K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.3% in Blitz (285K games) against 49.3% in Rapid (108K games).
How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening?
The King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 43.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 47.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 60K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 48.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 80K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 48.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 92K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 49.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 122K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 49.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 84K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 47.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 9.3K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 35.2%, draws 35.9% and loses 28.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 46 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 53.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 49.1%, draws 2.3% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 133K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 285K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 108K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 46.1%, draws 4.3% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games.
Is the King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening a good opening?
The King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 48.3% of its games and loses 48.1%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.