King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack
3.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 3.2M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.2M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.2M
- Best context
- 58.5% at 1600-1799 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 44.7% at 0-999 Classical
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.0% at 0-999, 51.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (231 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (44,976 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (134,576 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (65,145 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (693 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (399 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (86,499 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (207,531 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (87,195 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (2,163 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (1,293 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (137,127 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (314,280 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (116,062 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (5,063 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (3,123 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (174,147 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (413,126 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (123,975 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.0% expected score (7,533 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.5% expected score (1,078 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (185,373 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (359,616 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (131,071 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (5,469 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (195 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (137,495 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (212,970 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (64,678 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (2,660 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (118 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (66,126 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (53,344 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (11,380 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (88 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (90 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (16,613 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (3,819 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (643 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (2,252 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (243 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack scores 51.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.7% and 51.8% — from 3.2M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.2M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack win rate?
Playing the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 3.2M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack perform best?
The King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 52.0% (722K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.9% in Blitz (1.7M games) against 50.5% in Rapid (600K games).
How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack?
The King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 47.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 246K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 384K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 574K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.3% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 722K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 50.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 683K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 418K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 131K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 48.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 35.0%, draws 28.1% and loses 36.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 45 moves.
What is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 54.3%, draws 0.7% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.2%, draws 2.3% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 851K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 48.2%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 600K Lichess games.
What is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 45.8%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.
Is the King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack a good opening?
The King's Pawn Game: MacLeod Attack is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.9% of its games and loses 46.5%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.