Owen Defense
8 variations · 26M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · Overall
48.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 26M games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 26M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- #26 of 62
- Games in this context
- 26M
- Best context
- 52.4% at 0-999 UltraBullet
- Worst context
- 40.1% at 2000-2199 Classical
- Variations measured
- 8
- Average game length
- 34 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
Black · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.0% at 0-999, 38.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (3,317 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (287,795 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (472,702 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (141,832 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (1,148 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (9,113 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (641,176 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (971,074 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (243,920 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (4,639 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (22,865 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,256,517 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,765,044 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (427,609 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (11,411 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (31,021 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (1,930,340 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (2,741,941 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (676,905 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (25,343 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (30,651 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (2,325,090 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (3,070,466 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (684,407 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (26,847 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (18,826 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (2,338,593 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (2,077,023 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (440,763 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (11,152 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (5,938 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (1,606,483 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (720,133 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (109,544 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (1,616 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (2,026 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (801,521 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (152,909 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (13,574 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (107 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 32.8% expected score (106 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (138,197 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (9,804 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (422 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 29.7% expected score (55 games)
8 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Owen Defense family scores 48.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.5% and 48.6% — from 26M Lichess games across 8 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 26M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Owen Defense win rate?
Across the Owen Defense's 8 variations, Black wins 46.8%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 26M rated games from Lichess.
How many Owen Defense variations are there?
8 Owen Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Owen Defense perform best?
The Owen Defense family performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.1% (907K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Owen Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Owen Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.3% in Blitz (12M games) against 47.9% in Rapid (2.7M games).
How sharp is the Owen Defense?
Owen Defense games are 96.6% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Owen Defense a good opening family?
The Owen Defense family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 46.8% and loses 49.8%. Results differ between its 8 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.