Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

Snapshot

Overall, the Owen Defense family has a 48.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 48.5% and 48.6%), aggregated from 8 variations and 26M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 43%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (49%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · Black expected scores

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (3,317 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (287,795 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (472,702 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (141,832 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (1,148 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (9,113 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (641,176 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (971,074 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (243,920 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (4,639 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (22,865 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (1,256,517 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,765,044 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (427,609 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (11,411 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (31,021 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (1,930,340 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (2,741,941 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (676,905 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (25,343 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (30,651 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (2,325,090 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (3,070,466 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (684,407 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (26,847 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.3% expected score (18,826 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (2,338,593 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (2,077,023 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (440,763 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (11,152 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (5,938 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (1,606,483 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (720,133 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (109,544 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (1,616 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (2,026 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (801,521 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (152,909 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.5% expected score (13,574 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (107 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 32.8% expected score (106 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (138,197 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (9,804 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (422 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 29.7% expected score (55 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (8)

Owen Defense: Smith Gambit988K games

Balanced49.5%

Owen Defense25M games

Balanced48.5%

Owen Defense: Wind Gambit6.5K games

Balanced49.1%

Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense96K games

Losing47.3%

Owen Defense: Hekili-Loa Gambit8.7K games

Losing45.3%

Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit15K games

Losing42.2%

Owen Defense: Unicorn Variation1.6K games

Losing39.6%

Owen Defense: Matovinsky Gambit9.1K games

Losing37.5%

Analyze Owen Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Owen Defense win rate?

The Owen Defense family has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.8%) win rate for white, aggregated from 8 variations and 26M rated games from Lichess.

How many Owen Defense variations are there?

This analysis covers 8 Owen Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Owen Defense perform best?

The Owen Defense family performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (970K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Owen Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (50.6%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.6%) by 1.0% across all Owen Defense variations.

How sharp is the Owen Defense?

Owen Defense games are 96.6% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Owen Defense a good opening family?

The Owen Defense family is statistically balanced overall with a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.8%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 8 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.

What Should I Play?

What is the Owen Defense expected score for Black?