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Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit

15K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score57.9%Range (90% confident): 57.3% – 58.6%Based on 15K games
0%57.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 57.3% – 58.6%
Outcome Distribution
56.5%2.7%40.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Bg5
Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit
Analyzen=15K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.7%

What is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a 57.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 57.3% and 58.6%), based on 15K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +26.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.7% · Blitz best · UltraBullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 62%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.7% win rate (458 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.8% win rate (307 games)
  • 1200-1399: 54.4% win rate (573 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.6% win rate (1,467 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.1% win rate (2,816 games)
  • 1800-1999: 56.5% win rate (3,999 games)
  • 2000-2199: 58.6% win rate (2,976 games)
  • 2200-2499: 63.4% win rate (2,144 games)
  • 2500+: 61.7% win rate (537 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (58%), worst in Classical (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.3% win rate (110 games)
  • Bullet: 56.4% win rate (9,890 games)
  • Blitz: 58.0% win rate (4,707 games)
  • Rapid: 49.1% win rate (553 games)
  • Classical: 35.1% win rate (17 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (207 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (184 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (64 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (148 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (121 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.5% expected score (330 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (199 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.1% expected score (29 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (763 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (588 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (84 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (1,802 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (862 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (123 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.2% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (2,382 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 61.1% expected score (1,461 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (124 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (2,021 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 62.2% expected score (872 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 66.0% expected score (77 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 64.6% expected score (1,740 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 66.9% expected score (380 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 64.5% expected score (497 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.5% expected score (40 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Owen Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense
50.9%
Owen Defense: Hekili-Loa Gambit
52.9%
Owen Defense: Matovinsky Gambit
61.3%
Owen Defense: Smith Gambit
49.1%
Owen Defense: Unicorn Variation
58.9%
Analyze Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit win rate?

The Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a 56.5% (90% CI: 55.9%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 15K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit perform best?

The Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 63.4% win rate for white (2.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (58.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (45.3%) by 12.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit?

The Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a 44.7% (90% CI: 40.9%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 458 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a 46.8% (90% CI: 42.2%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 307 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a 54.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 573 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a 53.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a 53.1% (90% CI: 51.5%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a 56.5% (90% CI: 55.2%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a 58.6% (90% CI: 57.1%-60.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a 63.4% (90% CI: 61.7%-65.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a 61.7% (90% CI: 58.3%-65.2%) win rate for white, based on 537 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a 45.3% (90% CI: 37.6%-53.1%) win rate for white (110 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a 56.4% (90% CI: 55.6%-57.2%) win rate for white (9.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a 58.0% (90% CI: 56.8%-59.2%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 45.7%-52.6%) win rate for white (553 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

Is the Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit a good opening?

The Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit is statistically favors white with a 56.5% (90% CI: 55.9%-57.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.