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Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense

96K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.3%Range (90% confident): 47.0% – 47.5%Based on 96K games
0%47.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.0% – 47.5%
Outcome Distribution
45.4%3.8%50.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Ba6
Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense
Analyzen=96K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 47.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.0% and 47.5%), based on 96K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 20.9% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 43% → 46%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.8% win rate (3,621 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.1% win rate (4,649 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.7% win rate (9,066 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.6% win rate (13,272 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.3% win rate (17,692 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.2% win rate (21,780 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.8% win rate (18,044 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.6% win rate (7,150 games)
  • 2500+: 45.9% win rate (1,028 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (34%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.1% win rate (299 games)
  • Bullet: 47.1% win rate (58,473 games)
  • Blitz: 43.2% win rate (30,603 games)
  • Rapid: 39.7% win rate (6,689 games)
  • Classical: 34.4% win rate (238 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,011 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (1,775 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (823 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,688 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (2,275 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (655 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 67.2% expected score (89 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (2,495 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (4,984 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (1,459 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 25.4% expected score (39 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (91 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (4,386 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (6,893 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (1,814 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (88 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (72 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (9,036 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (7,443 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (1,092 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.2% expected score (49 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (15,619 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (5,407 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (707 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 18.6% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (16,370 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (1,533 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 35.8% expected score (129 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (6,873 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (261 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (995 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Owen Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Owen Defense: Smith Gambit
49.1%
Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit
56.5%
Owen Defense: Matovinsky Gambit
61.3%
Owen Defense: Hekili-Loa Gambit
52.9%
Owen Defense: Wind Gambit
49.2%
Analyze Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate?

The Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 96K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense perform best?

The Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (3.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (60.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (39.4%) by 20.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense?

The Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.4%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.1%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 39.4% (90% CI: 34.8%-44.1%) win rate for white (299 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.5%.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.0%) win rate for white (58K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.5%) win rate for white (31K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 55.9% (90% CI: 54.9%-56.9%) win rate for white (6.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a 60.3% (90% CI: 55.1%-65.5%) win rate for white (238 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense a good opening?

The Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense is statistically favors white with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.