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Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense

96K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.3%

40%55%
Floor47.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.5%.

Measured over 96K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 96K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
96K
Best context
50.9% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
38.4% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 20.9% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 47.6% at 0-999, 38.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,011 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (1,775 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (823 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,688 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (2,275 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (655 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 67.2% expected score (89 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (2,495 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (4,984 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (1,459 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 25.4% expected score (39 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (91 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (4,386 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (6,893 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (1,814 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (88 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.1% expected score (72 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (9,036 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (7,443 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (1,092 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 37.2% expected score (49 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (15,619 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (5,407 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (707 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 18.6% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (16,370 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (1,533 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 35.8% expected score (129 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (6,873 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (261 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (995 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Owen Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Owen Defense: Smith Gambit
49.1%
Owen Defense: Naselwaus Gambit
56.5%
Owen Defense: Matovinsky Gambit
61.3%
Owen Defense: Hekili-Loa Gambit
52.9%
Owen Defense: Wind Gambit
49.2%
Analyze Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense scores 47.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.0% and 47.5% — from 96K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
96K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate?

Playing the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense, Black wins 45.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 96K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense perform best?

The Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 48.2% (18K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.6% in Blitz (31K games) against 41.9% in Rapid (6.7K games).

How sharp is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense?

The Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 42.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.2%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 44.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.7%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 60.1%, draws 0.5% and loses 39.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.4%. It rests on 299 Lichess games.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 58K Lichess games.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.2%, draws 4.7% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 39.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games.

What is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 34.4%, draws 5.2% and loses 60.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.1%. It rests on 238 Lichess games.

Is the Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense a good opening?

The Owen Defense: Guatemala Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.4% of its games and loses 50.9%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.