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King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed

250K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.9%

45%55%
Floor49.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.0%.

Measured over 250K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 250K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
250K
Best context
52.0% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Worst context
48.0% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +4.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.5% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 51.3% at 0-999, 56.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (4,076 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (8,780 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (3,409 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (28 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (98 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (7,512 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (12,402 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (3,841 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (74 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (224 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (13,799 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (18,380 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (4,577 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (172 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (986 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (18,078 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (23,943 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (5,287 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (257 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 36.5% expected score (478 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (22,034 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (26,170 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (4,360 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (177 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.6% expected score (111 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (23,520 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (17,715 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (2,310 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.3% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (14,534 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (5,471 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (555 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (5,048 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (754 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.0% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (418 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (30 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Pawn Game
47.9%
Variations (5)
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation
48.7%
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack
51.8%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit
50.9%
King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense
50.0%
King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack
50.5%
Analyze King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed scores 49.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.7% and 50.0% — from 250K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
250K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed win rate?

Playing the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed, Black wins 48.4%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 250K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 50.7% (49K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.9% in Blitz (114K games) against 50.5% in Rapid (24K games).

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed?

The King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 47.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 49K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 53K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.5%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 44K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 42.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 449 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 47.0%, draws 0.7% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.6%, draws 2.2% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 109K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 48.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 114K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 48.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 24K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 52.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 762 Lichess games.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Clam Variation, King's Gambit Reversed is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.4% of its games and loses 48.6%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.