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Polish Opening

24 variations · 9.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Polish Opening gives White a 53.8% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 7.3%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

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Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 53.7% – 53.8%Aggregated from 24 variations
0%53.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.7% – 53.8%
ContextOverall · n=9.0M
Outcome Distribution
51.9%3.7%44.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
1.b4
Polish Opening
Variations24
Games (Context)9.0M
Avg Length34 moves
Draw Rate3.7%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance VariationTop Pick
1.b4 e5 2.Bb2 f6 3.b5
Min adv +10.3% · n=101K
55.4%
#2Polish Opening: Rooks Swap Line
1.b4 e6 2.Bb2 Nf6 3.b5 a6 4.a4 axb5 5.axb5 Rxa1 6.Bxa1
Min adv +9.9% · n=23K
55.5%
#3Polish Opening
1.b4
Min adv +9.2% · n=5.7M
54.7%
#4Polish Opening: Schiffler-Sokolsky Variation
1.b4 e6 2.Bb2 Nf6 3.b5 d5 4.e3
Min adv +8.7% · n=204K
54.5%
#5Polish Opening: Myers Variation
1.b4 d5 2.Bb2 c6 3.a4
Min adv +5.0% · n=35K
53.0%
#6Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack
1.b4 e5 2.a3
Min adv +4.9% · n=334K
52.6%
#7Polish Opening: Tartakower Gambit
1.b4 e5 2.Bb2 f6 3.e4
Min adv +1.0% · n=18K
51.2%
#8Polish Opening: Zukertort System
1.Nf3 Nf6 2.b4 g6 3.Bb2
Min adv +0.9% · n=28K
51.0%
#9Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation, Sokolsky Attack
1.b4 Nf6 2.Bb2 g6 3.c4 Bg7 4.e3 d6 5.Nf3 O-O 6.d4
Min adv -0.1% · n=31K
50.5%
#10Polish Opening: Schuehler Gambit
1.b4 c6 2.Bb2 a5 3.b5 cxb5 4.e4
Min adv -6.0% · n=374
51.2%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Polish Opening expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Polish Opening family has a 53.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.7% and 53.8%), aggregated from 24 variations and 9.0M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 49%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.3% win rate (284,929 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.5% win rate (473,831 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.8% win rate (988,110 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.3% win rate (1,611,357 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.1% win rate (2,043,278 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.7% win rate (1,927,717 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.7% win rate (1,222,526 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.2% win rate (409,348 games)
  • 2500+: 49.0% win rate (48,972 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Classical (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.6% win rate (39,175 games)
  • Bullet: 52.5% win rate (3,526,923 games)
  • Blitz: 51.6% win rate (4,310,380 games)
  • Rapid: 50.9% win rate (1,085,349 games)
  • Classical: 48.6% win rate (48,241 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.1% expected score (546 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (79,806 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (137,706 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (65,845 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (1,026 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (1,287 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (153,602 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (236,041 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (80,838 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (2,063 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.7% expected score (3,227 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (329,871 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (498,715 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (152,654 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (3,643 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (19,991 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (523,630 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (829,873 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (223,400 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (14,463 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (8,493 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (642,982 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (1,091,849 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (283,485 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (16,469 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.2% expected score (3,764 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (789,394 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (918,104 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (207,973 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (8,482 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (1,366 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (679,171 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (482,755 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (57,458 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (1,776 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (462 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (285,570 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (109,963 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (13,144 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (209 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.1% expected score (39 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (42,897 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (5,374 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (552 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (110 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (24)

1
Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit4.1K games
57.3%
2
Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation101K games
55.4%
3
Polish Opening: Rooks Swap Line23K games
55.5%
Polish Opening5.7M games
54.7%
Polish Opening: Schiffler-Sokolsky Variation204K games
54.5%
Polish Opening: Baltic Defense164K games
54.2%
Polish Opening: Symmetrical Variation91K games
54.1%
Polish Opening: Queenside Defense17K games
53.9%
Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit242K games
53.0%
Polish Opening: Queen's Indian Variation33K games
53.2%
Polish Opening: Grigorian Variation83K games
53.0%
Polish Opening: Myers Variation35K games
53.0%
Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack334K games
52.6%
Polish Opening: Dutch Defense94K games
52.1%
Polish Opening: German Defense19K games
52.3%
Polish Opening: Czech Defense840K games
51.6%
Polish Opening: Outflank Variation377K games
51.2%
Polish Opening: Tartakower Gambit18K games
51.2%
Polish Opening: Zukertort System28K games
51.0%
Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation492K games
50.2%
Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation, Sokolsky Attack31K games
50.5%
Polish Opening: Karniewski Variation1.4K games
51.4%
Polish Opening: Schuehler Gambit374 games
51.2%
Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation, Schiffler Attack35K games
47.1%
Analyze Polish Opening PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Polish Opening win rate?

The Polish Opening family has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-51.9%) win rate for white, aggregated from 24 variations and 9.0M rated games from Lichess.

How many Polish Opening variations are there?

This analysis covers 24 Polish Opening variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Polish Opening perform best?

The Polish Opening family performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (988K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Polish Opening better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.5%) outperforms Classical (48.6%) by 3.9% across all Polish Opening variations.

How sharp is the Polish Opening?

Polish Opening games are 96.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Polish Opening a good opening family?

The Polish Opening family is statistically favors white overall with a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-51.9%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 24 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.