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Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation

101K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.4%Range (90% confident): 55.2% – 55.7%Based on 101K games
0%55.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.2% – 55.7%
Outcome Distribution
53.5%3.7%42.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.b5
Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation
Analyzen=101K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 55.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.2% and 55.7%), based on 101K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~51%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.0% win rate (1,383 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.3% win rate (4,307 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.0% win rate (11,351 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.6% win rate (19,661 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.8% win rate (25,274 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.7% win rate (23,173 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.5% win rate (12,770 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.9% win rate (2,595 games)
  • 2500+: 51.7% win rate (187 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Rapid (51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 55.5% win rate (113 games)
  • Bullet: 55.4% win rate (28,587 games)
  • Blitz: 53.2% win rate (56,513 games)
  • Rapid: 51.3% win rate (14,835 games)
  • Classical: 52.5% win rate (653 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (398 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (780 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (203 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (1,362 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (2,200 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (739 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (3,037 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (6,144 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (2,130 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.3% expected score (34 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (66 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (4,683 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (11,326 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (3,351 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (235 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (33 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (5,355 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (15,592 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (4,062 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (232 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (6,431 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (13,252 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (3,360 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (128 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (5,574 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (6,341 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (834 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (1,581 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (860 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 65.6% expected score (153 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (166 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Polish Opening
52.9%
Variations (5)
Polish Opening: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit
51.4%
Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack
50.7%
Polish Opening: Czech Defense
49.5%
Polish Opening: Dutch Defense
50.3%
Analyze Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate?

The Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 101K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation perform best?

The Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 53.8% win rate for white (25K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (55.4%) outperforms UltraBullet (55.5%) by -0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation?

The Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 53.0%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 53.3%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.2%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 23K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 52.3%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 45.7%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 187 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 9.8% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 55.5% (90% CI: 47.8%-63.0%) win rate for white (113 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 55.4% (90% CI: 54.9%-55.8%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.5%) win rate for white (57K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.7%-52.0%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-55.7%) win rate for white (653 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

Is the Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation a good opening?

The Polish Opening: Bugayev Advance Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.