Polish Opening: Baltic Defense
164K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
45.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.1%.
Measured over 164K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 164K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 164K
- Best context
- 54.4% at 0-999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 42.0% at 2000-2199 Rapid
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.3%
- Draws
- 3.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.3% at 0-999, 33.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (982 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,164 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (328 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (2,419 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (3,168 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (900 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (5,946 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (9,234 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (2,317 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 65.6% expected score (21 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (83 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (9,445 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (19,184 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (4,585 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (156 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (10,584 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (27,023 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (6,700 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (312 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (10,613 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (21,120 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (5,820 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (212 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (6,607 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (8,974 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (1,457 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (56 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (1,772 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (1,927 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (313 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.9% expected score (233 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.0% expected score (87 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense scores 45.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.7% and 46.1% — from 164K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 164K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate?
Playing the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense, Black wins 44.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 164K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense perform best?
The Polish Opening: Baltic Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 51.1% (2.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.9% in Blitz (92K games) against 45.9% in Rapid (22K games).
How sharp is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense?
The Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.1%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 43.1%, draws 4.4% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 38K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 42.2%, draws 5.0% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 41.7%, draws 7.4% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 36.0%, draws 7.0% and loses 57.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.5%. It rests on 322 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 50.5%, draws 0.4% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 136 Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 44.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 49K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 43.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 92K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 43.6%, draws 4.5% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 22K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 46.4%, draws 6.5% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 774 Lichess games.
Is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense a good opening?
The Polish Opening: Baltic Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.0% of its games and loses 52.3%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.