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Polish Opening: Baltic Defense

164K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score45.9%Range (90% confident): 45.7% – 46.1%Based on 164K games
0%45.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.7% – 46.1%
Outcome Distribution
44.0%3.7%52.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Bf5
Polish Opening: Baltic Defense
Analyzen=164K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 45.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.7% and 46.1%), based on 164K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.6% win rate (2,483 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.1% win rate (6,501 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.5% win rate (17,547 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.0% win rate (33,453 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.7% win rate (44,627 games)
  • 1800-1999: 43.1% win rate (37,766 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.2% win rate (17,096 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.7% win rate (4,019 games)
  • 2500+: 36.0% win rate (322 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Rapid (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.5% win rate (136 games)
  • Bullet: 44.6% win rate (48,601 games)
  • Blitz: 43.8% win rate (91,881 games)
  • Rapid: 43.6% win rate (22,422 games)
  • Classical: 46.4% win rate (774 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (982 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,164 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (328 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (2,419 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (3,168 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (900 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (29 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (5,946 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (9,234 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (2,317 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 65.6% expected score (21 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (83 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (9,445 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (19,184 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (4,585 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (156 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (10,584 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (27,023 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (6,700 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (312 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (10,613 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (21,120 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.8% expected score (5,820 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (212 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (6,607 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (8,974 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (1,457 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (56 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.3% expected score (1,772 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (1,927 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (313 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 40.9% expected score (233 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.0% expected score (87 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Polish Opening
52.9%
Variations (5)
Polish Opening: Czech Defense
49.5%
Polish Opening: King's Indian Variation
48.0%
Polish Opening: Outflank Variation
49.2%
Polish Opening: Bugayev Attack
50.7%
Polish Opening: Birmingham Gambit
51.4%
Analyze Polish Opening: Baltic Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate?

The Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 164K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense perform best?

The Polish Opening: Baltic Defense performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 57.0% win rate for white (322 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.1%) by 3.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense?

The Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 47.4% (90% CI: 45.8%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 57.0% (90% CI: 52.5%-61.5%) win rate for white, based on 322 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 42.1%-56.1%) win rate for white (136 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.4%.

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.4%) win rate for white (49K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.3%) win rate for white (92K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.4%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense has a 47.1% (90% CI: 44.2%-50.1%) win rate for white (774 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

Is the Polish Opening: Baltic Defense a good opening?

The Polish Opening: Baltic Defense is statistically favors white with a 52.3% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.