Polish Opening
24 variations · 9.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · Overall
53.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 9.0M games at this level and clock.
A strong opening choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 9.0M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- #9 of 56
- Games in this context
- 9.0M
- Best context
- 56.8% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 39.5% at 0-999 Classical
- Variations measured
- 24
- Average game length
- 34 moves
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
What to play from here
White · OverallThese are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 45.4% at 0-999, 56.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.1% expected score (546 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (79,806 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (137,706 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (65,845 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (1,026 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (1,287 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (153,602 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (236,041 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (80,838 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (2,063 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.7% expected score (3,227 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (329,871 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (498,715 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (152,654 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (3,643 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (19,991 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (523,630 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (829,873 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (223,400 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (14,463 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.7% expected score (8,493 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (642,982 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (1,091,849 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (283,485 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (16,469 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.2% expected score (3,764 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (789,394 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (918,104 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (207,973 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (8,482 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (1,366 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (679,171 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (482,755 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (57,458 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (1,776 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (462 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (285,570 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (109,963 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (13,144 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (209 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.1% expected score (39 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (42,897 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (5,374 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (552 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (110 games)
24 variations · ranked by floor
Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Polish Opening family scores 53.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.7% and 53.8% — from 9.0M Lichess games across 24 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 9.0M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Polish Opening win rate?
Across the Polish Opening's 24 variations, White wins 51.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 9.0M rated games from Lichess.
How many Polish Opening variations are there?
24 Polish Opening variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.
At what rating does the Polish Opening perform best?
The Polish Opening family performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 54.8% (409K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Polish Opening better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Polish Opening scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.7% in Blitz (4.3M games) against 53.3% in Rapid (1.1M games).
How sharp is the Polish Opening?
Polish Opening games are 96.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 34 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Polish Opening a good opening family?
The Polish Opening family is good for White overall. Across its games, White wins 51.9% and loses 44.4%. Results differ between its 24 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.