Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit
4.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
42.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 44.0%.
Measured over 4.1K games at this level and clock.
Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 2.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.1K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 4.1K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 28 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.2%
- Draws
- 2.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.5% at 0-999, 54.3% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | — | ||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (95 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (139 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (120 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (167 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.4% expected score (175 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (78 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 39.9% expected score (220 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 37.3% expected score (281 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (94 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (328 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (311 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (111 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (336 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 38.7% expected score (267 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (80 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (410 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (146 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (38 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (419 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (36 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 35.9% expected score (122 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit scores 42.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 41.5% and 44.0% — from 4.1K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 4.1K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit win rate?
Playing the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit, Black wins 41.4%, draws 2.8% and loses 55.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 4.1K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit perform best?
The Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 48.3% (457 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 40.4% in Blitz (1.4K games) against 40.8% in Rapid (523 games).
How sharp is the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit?
The Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 46.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 359 Lichess games, which average 22 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 39.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 57.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.9%. It rests on 427 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 36.2%, draws 2.4% and loses 61.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.4%. It rests on 605 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.3%, draws 2.0% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 771 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 39.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 57.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.5%. It rests on 692 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 41.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 56.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.5%. It rests on 595 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 457 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 33.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 62.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.7%. It rests on 128 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 43.6%, draws 2.1% and loses 54.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 38.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 57.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.4%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games.
What is the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 39.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 57.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.8%. It rests on 523 Lichess games.
Is the Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit a good opening?
The Polish Opening: Wolferts Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 41.4% of its games and loses 55.9%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.